Blockchain
May 2024 Cryptocurrency Market Predictions – Forbes Advisor
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Bitcoin has retreated from all-time highs and other major cryptocurrencies have struggled as investors aren’t getting the bitcoin halving boost they want.
Investors have flocked to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in recent months after the first bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in January. However, optimism surrounding the imminent launch of the first Ethereum spot ETFs has faded in recent weeks.
Furthermore, cryptocurrency investors are increasingly concerned about a potential downturn in the US economy as inflation remains stubbornly sticky while GDP growth fell sharply in the first quarter.
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Cryptocurrency market performance in April
Inflows towards a new spot Bitcoin ETFs pushed bitcoin prices to new all-time highs above $73,000 in March. However, bitcoin prices have fallen from their April highs. They finished the month slightly above $60,000.
Likewise, after rising as high as $4,092 in March, Ethereum prices ended April just below $3,000, as investors continue to hope that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will soon open the door to the approval of Spot ETF on Ethereum by the United States. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Although bitcoin prices fell more than 8% in April, they are still up about 50% year to date. Ethereum prices also fell more than 8% in the month, but are up about 40% so far in 2024.
The largest spot bitcoin ETF by assets under management, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), fell 11% in April. However, this was caused by investor concerns about that particular fund’s annual cost, not jitters over cryptocurrency-related strategic issues or macroeconomic trends.
Among the 10 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Toncoin (TON) was the best performer in April with a gain of 5%. Avalanche (AVAX) was the worst performer, down 37%.
Bitcoin halving completed
The bitcoin network has completed its last halving event on April 19th. Every time another 210,000 blocks of transactions are added to the bitcoin blockchain, the network automatically undergoes a halving, during which the reward that bitcoin miners receive for validating a block of transactions is halved.
Bitcoin halvings reduce the supply of new BTC created. Historically, bitcoin prices have bottomed out about a year before a halving occurs and continue to rise for about a year after the halving is completed.
The latest halving at block 840,000 in the bitcoin blockchain was the fourth halving completed by the bitcoin network since the cryptocurrency launched in 2009. The halving reduced the number of rewards bitcoin miners receive for verifying a single block of transactions from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Launch of Bitcoin runes
The latest bitcoin halving also coincided with the launch of Bitcoin Runes, a new protocol that will allow cryptocurrency enthusiasts to create and trade meme coins on the bitcoin blockchain. Meme coins are a subset of cryptocurrencies typically created as satire and intended as a tribute to internet culture.
Bitcoin Runes was developed by Casey Rodarmor, who previously created and launched Bitcoin Ordinals in 2023. Bitcoin Ordinals has actually brought non-fungible tokens, or NFT, to the bitcoin network for the first time. The popularity of NFT trading on the Ethereum network and other blockchains has exploded in recent years.
Unlike NFTs, which are all unique, Bitcoin Runes allows for the creation of identical and interchangeable fungible tokens, just like different $1 bills.
The Bitcoin Runes market has very low liquidity and has demonstrated extreme price volatility following its launch. As of late April, more than two-thirds of Runes were in the red, and critics have blasted the protocol for its role in raising fees on bitcoin transactions.
Spot ETF on Ethereum?
VanEck, ARK Investment Management and seven other companies have filed applications with the SEC to launch Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States
The first deadline to decide the spot Ethereum ETF is May 23 for the VanEck application. It is expected to be followed by the ARK application decision deadline on May 24. Unfortunately, applicants have reported that recent meetings with the SEC have been disheartening. Sources familiar with the matter suggest that the SEC will likely reject the first wave of applications for Ethereum spot ETFs.
The SEC approved the first batch of Ethereum futures ETFs in October 2023, leaving investors hoping that a spot Ethereum ETF could arrive soon. Ethereum Futures ETFs Hold Up futures contractswhile an Ethereum spot ETF would directly hold the ETH cryptocurrency.
The SEC may want to observe the performance of Ethereum futures ETFs and bitcoin spot ETFs for an extended period before giving the green light to Ethereum spot ETFs.
More regulatory headaches ahead
Meanwhile, regulators continued their crackdown on the cryptocurrency market in April:
- On April 24, the U.S. Department of Justice filed charges against the cofounders of Samourai Wallet related to their alleged role in facilitating more than $100 million in money laundering.
- After the SEC sent Consensys Software a notice to Wells in early April warning the company of impending enforcement action, Consensys filed a lawsuit against the SEC in response, challenging the regulator’s authority over Ethereum.
- On April 10, cryptocurrency exchange Uniswap Labs also revealed that it had received a Wells notice from the SEC, informing the exchange that the regulator intends to recommend legal action against it.
James Davies, co-founder and chief product officer of Crypto Valley Exchange, says the SEC’s actions against Samourai, Consensys and Uniswap have had a much bigger impact in recent weeks than the Bitcoin halving.
“The bitcoin halving was widely expected, and people expected the launch of Runes (the latter of which was clearly a buy the news, sell the event situation), but these moves by the US regulator were not just as telegraphed and will have much broader impacts on the industry,” says Davies.
However, Davies also says that Ripple and other crypto projects and platforms targeted by regulators will continue to fight back in court.
“Importantly, Ripple’s apparent success in fighting the SEC in court has encouraged other projects to do the same, and we would expect the countersuits to set the stage for court battles that will define the industry in the future,” says Davies .
More cryptocurrency headlines
On April 5, a New York jury sided with the SEC in its lawsuit against Terraform Labs and the company’s former CEO Do Kwon.
The jury ruled that the South Korean entrepreneur and his company defrauded investors by misleading them about the stability of the TerraUSD stablecoin before its collapse in 2022, which wiped out $40 billion in value.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF continues to see heavy outflows as investors abandon GBTC stocks in favor of spot bitcoin ETFs with a more investor-friendly fee structure.
As of mid-April, investors had taken more than $16 billion out of the GBTC fund since it converted to an ETF on Jan. 11. During the same period, the 10 competing bitcoin spot funds recorded more than $29 billion in net inflows.
Crypto catalysts ahead
Anthony Rousseau, head of brokerage solutions at TradeStation Group, says cryptocurrency investors can expect more volatility in May tied to the ongoing regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrencies.
“I believe the Department of Justice, the SEC and this administration continue to attack the industry and will take every measure possible to slow adoption,” Rousseau says.
However, Rousseau says the cryptocurrency train appears to have already left the station and it will be difficult for regulators to slow it down.
“The pace at which this industry is being attacked has not stopped and adoption continues without regard [for] these events, which is surprising.”
Furthermore, the next few weeks could represent a critical phase for the US economy. Investors tend to sell stocks, cryptocurrencies and other risky assets when they anticipate future economic weakness.
In April, the Department of Labor reported the incident Consumer price index, or CPI, rose 3.5% year over year in March. That’s up from the 3.2% year-over-year growth recorded in February and higher than the 3.4% growth economists had expected.
A few days later, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP grew just 1.6% year over year in the first quarter, down from 3.6% growth in the fourth quarter and well below growth of 2.4% expected by economists.
John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, says cryptocurrency investors will pay close attention to U.S. economic data and monetary policy.
“The key to bitcoin price action (a strong indicator for all cryptocurrencies) in May will be the release of data from the US, with all eyes on the inflation data,” says Glover.
“Further focus will be placed on the SEC and if [SEC Chair Gary] Gensler Gives In to Pressure to Allow Spot ETH ETF in US”
Blockchain
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crashes as Donald Trump’s Win Odds Dip
Markets received nominally good news on Thursday morning, with the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July falling much more than economists expected, sending interest rates to multi-month lows across the board. Additionally, initial jobless claims in the US jumped to their highest level in about a year. Taken together, the data adds to the sentiment that the US is on the verge of a cycle of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is typically seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin.
Blockchain
Terra Blockchain Reboots After Reentry Attack Leads to $4M Exploit
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Blockchain
$6.8M Stolen, ASTRO Collapses 60%
In the latest news in the blockchain industry, there has been a turn of events that has severely affected Terra and its users and investors, with the company losing $6.8 million. The attack, which exploited a reentry vulnerability in the network’s IBC hooks, raises questions about the security measures of the once celebrated blockchain protocol.
A web3 security company, Cyvers Alerts reported that the exploit occurred on July 31st and caused the company to lose 60 million ASTRO, 3.5 million USDC500,000 USDTand 2. 7 BitcoinThe flaw was discovered in April and allows cybercriminals to make payments non-stop by withdrawing money from the network.
Earth’s response
Subsequently, to the hack employed on the Terra blockchain, its official X platform declared the Suspension network operations for a few hours to apply the emergency measure. Finally in its sendTerra’s official account agreed, sharing that its operations are back online: the core transactions that make up the platform are now possible again.
However, the overall value of the various assets lost in the event was unclear.
Market Impact: ASTRO Crashes!
The hack had an immediate impact on the price of ASTRO, which dropped nearly 60% to $0.0206 following the network shutdown. This sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of token prices to security breaches and the resulting market volatility.
This incident is not the first time Terra has faced serious challenges. Earlier this year, the blockchain encountered significant problems that called into question its long-term viability. These repeated incidents underscore the need for stronger security measures to protect users’ assets and maintain trust in the network.
The recent Terra hack serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing security challenges in the blockchain space. As the platform works to regain stability, the broader crypto community will be watching closely.
Read also: Record Cryptocurrency Theft: Over $1 Billion Stolen in 2024
This is a major setback for Terra. How do you think this will impact the blockchain industry?
Blockchain
Luxembourg proposes updates to blockchain laws | Insights and resources
On July 24, 2024, the Ministry of Finance proposed Blockchain Bill IVwhich will provide greater flexibility and legal certainty for issuers using Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The bill will update three of Luxembourg’s financial laws, the Law of 6 April 2013 on dematerialised securitiesTHE Law of 5 April 1993 on the financial sector and the Law of 23 December 1998 establishing a financial sector supervisory commissionThis bill includes the additional option of a supervisory agent role and the inclusion of equity securities in dematerialized form.
DLT and Luxembourg
DLT is increasingly used in the financial and fund management sector in Luxembourg, offering numerous benefits and transforming various aspects of the industry.
Here are some examples:
- Digital Bonds: Luxembourg has seen multiple digital bond issuances via DLT. For example, the European Investment Bank has issued bonds that are registered, transferred and stored via DLT processes. These bonds are governed by Luxembourg law and registered on proprietary DLT platforms.
- Fund Administration: DLT can streamline fund administration processes, offering new opportunities and efficiencies for intermediaries, and can do the following:
- Automate capital calls and distributions using smart contracts,
- Simplify audits and ensure reporting accuracy through transparent and immutable transaction records.
- Warranty Management: Luxembourg-based DLT platforms allow clients to swap ownership of baskets of securities between different collateral pools at precise times.
- Tokenization: DLT is used to tokenize various assets, including real estate and luxury goods, by representing them in a tokenized and fractionalized format on the blockchain. This process can improve the liquidity and accessibility of traditionally illiquid assets.
- Tokenization of investment funds: DLT is being explored for the tokenization of investment funds, which can streamline the supply chain, reduce costs, and enable faster transactions. DLT can automate various elements of the supply chain, reducing the need for reconciliations between entities such as custodians, administrators, and investment managers.
- Issuance, settlement and payment platforms:Market participants are developing trusted networks using DLT technology to serve as a single source of shared truth among participants in financial instrument investment ecosystems.
- Legal framework: Luxembourg has adapted its legal framework to accommodate DLT, recognising the validity and enforceability of DLT-based financial instruments. This includes the following:
- Allow the use of DLT for the issuance of dematerialized securities,
- Recognize DLT for the circulation of securities,
- Enabling financial collateral arrangements on DLT financial instruments.
- Regulatory compliance: DLT can improve transparency in fund share ownership and regulatory compliance, providing fund managers with new opportunities for liquidity management and operational efficiency.
- Financial inclusion: By leveraging DLT, Luxembourg aims to promote greater financial inclusion and participation, potentially creating a more diverse and resilient financial system.
- Governance and ethics:The implementation of DLT can promote higher standards of governance and ethics, contributing to a more sustainable and responsible financial sector.
Luxembourg’s approach to DLT in finance and fund management is characterised by a principle of technology neutrality, recognising that innovative processes and technologies can contribute to improving financial services. This is exemplified by its commitment to creating a compatible legal and regulatory framework.
Short story
Luxembourg has already enacted three major blockchain-related laws, often referred to as Blockchain I, II and III.
Blockchain Law I (2019): This law, passed on March 1, 2019, was one of the first in the EU to recognize blockchain as equivalent to traditional transactions. It allowed the use of DLT for account registration, transfer, and materialization of securities.
Blockchain Law II (2021): Enacted on 22 January 2021, this law strengthened the Luxembourg legal framework on dematerialised securities. It recognised the possibility of using secure electronic registration mechanisms to issue such securities and expanded access for all credit institutions and investment firms.
Blockchain Act III (2023): Also known as Bill 8055, this is the most recent law in the blockchain field and was passed on March 14, 2023. This law has integrated the Luxembourg DLT framework in the following way:
- Update of the Act of 5 August 2005 on provisions relating to financial collateral to enable the use of electronic DLT as collateral on financial instruments registered in securities accounts,
- Implementation of EU Regulation 2022/858 on a pilot scheme for DLT-based market infrastructures (DLT Pilot Regulation),
- Redefining the notion of financial instruments in Law of 5 April 1993 on the financial sector and the Law of 30 May 2018 on financial instruments markets to align with the corresponding European regulations, including MiFID.
The Blockchain III Act strengthened the collateral rules for digital assets and aimed to increase legal certainty by allowing securities accounts on DLT to be pledged, while maintaining the efficient system of the 2005 Act on Financial Collateral Arrangements.
With the Blockchain IV bill, Luxembourg will build on the foundations laid by previous Blockchain laws and aims to consolidate Luxembourg’s position as a leading hub for financial innovation in Europe.
Blockchain Bill IV
The key provisions of the Blockchain IV bill include the following:
- Expanded scope: The bill expands the Luxembourg DLT legal framework to include equity securities in addition to debt securities. This expansion will allow the fund industry and transfer agents to use DLT to manage registers of shares and units, as well as to process fund shares.
- New role of the control agent: The bill introduces the role of a control agent as an alternative to the central account custodian for the issuance of dematerialised securities via DLT. This control agent can be an EU investment firm or a credit institution chosen by the issuer. This new role does not replace the current central account custodian, but, like all other roles, it must be notified to the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF), which is designated as the competent supervisory authority. The notification must be submitted two months after the control agent starts its activities.
- Responsibilities of the control agent: The control agent will manage the securities issuance account, verify the consistency between the securities issued and those registered on the DLT network, and supervise the chain of custody of the securities at the account holder and investor level.
- Simplified payment processesThe bill allows issuers to meet payment obligations under securities (such as interest, dividends or repayments) as soon as they have paid the relevant amounts to the paying agent, settlement agent or central account custodian.
- Simplified issuance and reconciliationThe bill simplifies the process of issuing, holding and reconciling dematerialized securities through DLT, eliminating the need for a central custodian to have a second level of custody and allowing securities to be credited directly to the accounts of investors or their delegates.
- Smart Contract Integration:The new processes can be executed using smart contracts with the assistance of the control agent, potentially increasing efficiency and reducing intermediation.
These changes are expected to bring several benefits to the Luxembourg financial sector, including:
- Fund Operations: Greater efficiency and reduced costs by leveraging DLT for the issuance and transfer of fund shares.
- Financial transactions: Greater transparency and security.
- Transparency of the regulatory environment: Increased attractiveness and competitiveness of the Luxembourg financial centre through greater legal clarity and flexibility for issuers and investors using DLT.
- Smart Contracts: Potential for automation of contractual terms, reduction of intermediaries and improvement of transaction traceability through smart contracts.
Blockchain Bill IV is part of Luxembourg’s ongoing strategy to develop a strong digital ecosystem as part of its economy and maintain its status as a leading hub for financial innovation. Luxembourg is positioning itself at the forefront of Europe’s growing digital financial landscape by constantly updating its regulatory framework.
Local regulations, such as Luxembourg law, complement European regulations by providing a more specific legal framework, adapted to local specificities. These local laws, together with European initiatives, aim to improve both the use and the security of projects involving new technologies. They help establish clear standards and promote consumer trust, while promoting innovation and ensuring better protection against potential risks associated with these emerging technologies. Check out our latest posts on these topics and, for more information on this law, blockchain technology and the tokenization mechanism, do not hesitate to contact us.
We are available to discuss any project related to digital finance, cryptocurrencies and disruptive technologies.
This informational piece, which may be considered advertising under the ethics rules of some jurisdictions, is provided with the understanding that it does not constitute the rendering of legal or other professional advice by Goodwin or its attorneys. Past results do not guarantee a similar outcome.
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