Bitcoin
Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Stock: Bitcoin Euphoria Signals Spike
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is a company that makes most of its money from consumer commerce cryptography on your platform. However, the company is trying to expand its business into other crypto spaces such as crypto storage. I am bearish on Coinbase because its profits are tied to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, which appear to be in a state of euphoria, signaling a peak in trading volume. Furthermore, the company’s business model has been questionable so far and has been financed by debt, share dilution and Bitcoin appreciation.
Why Crypto Trading Volumes May Be Peaking
Crypto seems to me to be a speculative asset and one whose popularity may decline over time. Over the past few months, whenever I have discussed investing with someone, I have been asked if I trade Bitcoin. Alternative’s Crypto Fear/Greed Index, which measures crypto sentiment based on six different factors, recorded a mostly high Greed rating in March of this year.
Bitcoin seems to have captured people’s imagination because people like to get rich quick. Everyone and their dog was talking about meme stocks in 2021, and looking back, it signaled a euphoric spike in these stocks. The same thing happened with silver as a commodity in 2011, but fads inevitably fade.
Although Bitcoin has other uses, such as protecting against the devaluation of fiat currency and carrying out hidden (sometimes illegal) transactions, I believe that people mainly use it for gambling/speculation. Harming other uses of crypto, there has not been any devaluation of the US currency in the last two years, as evidenced by the US M2 money supply, and illicit activity puts crypto at risk of being banned.
Even as a currency, Bitcoin does a poor job because the items that can be purchased with it are few and far between and its value fluctuates dramatically.
Due to this euphoria and outlook, I think we may be close to another peak in demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which would be bad news for Coinbase. The company’s profits are tied to Bitcoin prices, reporting record profits in 2021, huge losses in 2022, and now increasing profits again in 2024. Rising prices attract traders, and falling prices scare traders. The other problem is that Coinbase has its own “crypto assets held for investment,” which can amplify losses.
The business model has some flaws
Despite its market value of US$53 billion, Coinbase averaged just $68 million in operating income for the past three years, which means its core operations are not very profitable. Because Coinbase needs to protect all of its customers’ cryptocurrencies and money, the company has relatively little capital available to invest, resulting in an unprofitable business.
To accommodate a flawed business model, Coinbase has been increasing its long-term debt and diluting shareholders. This has helped Coinbase bring money in the door in recent years.
The company now hopes to profit from other crypto-related services, including storing bitcoin for ETF providers like BlackRock (NYSE:BLK). However, with very small fees of 0.1% to 0.2%, I expect the revenue opportunity here to be in the millions and not billions. Additionally, as consumers now have the option to invest in Bitcoin ETFs with minimal fees, I expect this new income to merely replace lost trading income, resulting in little growth. We could also see downward pressure on Coinbase trading fees.
The valuation is reason enough to be bearish
Despite the issues I described above, and did not even discuss the SEC lawsuit underway, among other risks, Coinbase trades at 13.5x sales and 6.4x book value. If we compare this to its growth, the company’s book value per share has grown at a compound annual rate of just 3.5% since 2021, and its sales have been cut in half since then.
I like to look for companies that are obviously undervalued and, as Peter Lynch once said, “avoid longshots.” Coinbase seems like a long shot to me. That doesn’t mean it can’t increase its valuation, but looking at all the information available, I’m skeptical.
Is COIN Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Currently, nine of the 23 analysts covering COIN give it a Buy rating, resulting in a Moderate Buy consensus rating. O Coinbase Global’s average share price target is $234.10, implying an appreciation potential of 8.7%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $110.00 per share to a high of $325.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on COIN Stock
Coinbase stock looks like what Peter Lynch would describe as a “shot in the dark.” The valuation, at $53 billion, is quite high for a company that has produced just $68 million in average operating income in recent years. I am also bearish on Bitcoin, which I believe is approaching a euphoric peak and could become a fad of the past or face more government bans. With an ongoing SEC lawsuit and growing competition from Bitcoin ETFs, I think there could be more downside ahead for COIN stock.
Bitcoin
‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump
Bitcoin has surged again this year under former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.
The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcoinalthough it fell again this week to below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.
Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.
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Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.
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The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.
“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”
John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”
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Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.
Forbes Digital Assets
Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.
According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”
The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.
Bitcoin
Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows
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Bitcoin
Peter Schiff criticizes Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin hype by U.Today
U.Today – Renowned economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff has criticized Michael Saylor’s recent hype about the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies as a strategic treasury asset by corporations.
Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate and president of MicroStrategy, recently shared his enthusiasm on X about the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.
Citing a comment made by Bitcoin investor Bill Miller in a recent interview with CNBC, Saylor tweeted: “We now have more companies coming forward and saying we will put Bitcoin on our balance sheet as a strategic treasury asset.”
However, not everyone shares Saylor’s enthusiasm. Schiff, a vocal Bitcoin critic and gold bull, was quick to respond with his usual skepticism. In a pointed tweet, Schiff argued: “Bitcoin is neither strategic nor appropriate as a treasury asset. Companies should not risk shareholder funds. They should pay dividends and let shareholders risk their own money.”
Bitcoin enthusiasts are not intimidated
However, Schiff’s criticism shouldn’t deter Bitcoin enthusiasts, who often take Schiff’s words with a pinch of salt. To put things in context, Michael Saylor began buying Bitcoin in 2020 as an inflation hedge and alternative to money. Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, is among the largest public holders of Bitcoin in the world. As of June 20, it held 226,331 BTC, purchased for around $8.33 billion at an average price of $36,798.
Over the weekend, Schiff was surprised when 87% of the more than 11,000 Bitcoin holders who responded to his X survey said they would not sell any of their Bitcoin even if the price dropped more than 99% to $120. They said not only would they not sell, but that they would continue to buy even when prices dropped.
Schiff unexpectedly revealed that “the main selling point for investors to buy Bitcoin is its excellent past performance record.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,067, having reached all-time highs of nearly $74,000 in mid-March.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Falls as ETF Flows Reverse, Mt. Gox Moves Billions
In a week of drastic fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated from its highs and is currently trading at US$66,250, down 0.9% in European trading.
This volatility comes on the heels of a significant surge above $70,000 earlier in the week, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s ambitious cryptocurrency plans announced in a Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump’s announcement to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president has temporarily sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy.
However, the excitement was short-lived as a series of events unfolded which caused investor sentiment to sour.
A significant sell-off of about 8% was triggered when the US Marshals Service moved $2 billion in Bitcoin for new wallets.
This move has reignited fears of a potential large-scale liquidation, compounded by lingering concerns over a possible Bitcoin liquidation from Mt. Gox. Early this morning, Mt. Gox administrator transferred US$2.2 billion value of your BTC assets in a new wallet.
Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETF spot market is showing signs of fluctuation, according to data from SoSo Value. On July 30, Bitcoin spot funds experienced their first net outflow in five days, totaling $18.3 million.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw outflows of $73.6 million, while the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $74.9 million in inflows. But outflows from other funds left the category in the red at the end of Tuesday’s trading session. The total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs currently stands at a substantial $58.5 billion.
In other crypto news, Ripple (XRP) is up 8.6% in the past 24 hours, hitting over 64 cents – its highest point since March 25, according to CoinGecko. data.
This rally comes amid a scheduled token unlock and growing optimism around a potential deal in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
The crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s actions, particularly its intention to amend its complaint against Binance regarding “Third-Party Cryptocurrency Securities,” which some interpret as a positive sign for Ripple.
On a market analysis noteSingapore-based cryptocurrency trading desk QCP Capital wrote that while election headlines continue to dominate, several crucial macroeconomic events loom on the horizon.
“Election headlines will continue to be a key focus, but several key macroeconomic events are also on the horizon. Key events starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, megacap tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Meta) throughout the week, and unemployment data on Friday,” QCP Capital wrote.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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