Bitcoin
Will Bitcoin Price Bear the Impact of Mt. Gox Refund Plan?
The following is a guest post by Nischal Shetty, co-founder and president of Shardeum.
Mount GoxBitcoin’s dormancy may not be over, but a series of tokens leaving wallets has caught the market’s attention. A total of 137,890 BTC valued at $9.4 billion is assumed to be headed to lenders’ wallets, and this has warranted a mixed set of responses from experts, most of whom are concerned about a potential increase in selling pressure and a subsequent drop in the price of Bitcoin. .
Gox was once the world’s leading Bitcoin exchange before it was hacked in 2014, leading to the loss of over 850,000 BTC. After years of legal battles, Japanese authorities finally approved a rehabilitation plan in 2021, launching a legal procedure known as “civil rehabilitation,” allowing creditors to recover a portion of their lost funds.
The plan came into effect because creditors who lost their funds now receive a share of the remainder. Mt. Gox’s planned repayments to creditors may have played some role in the 4% drop in the price of Bitcoin in the last 24 hours, which the market was able to shake off with an eventual recovery. However, there is concern that these newly released coins will flood the market, leading to a sell-off and lowering the price even further.
In an official statement, Marcos Karpelesformer CEO of Mt. Gox, confirmed that although Bitcoin sales are not happening now, the tokens being transferred from Mt.Gox to a new wallet are part of a larger distribution plan to creditors.
Understanding Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and Short-Term Holders (STHs)
The Bitcoin market can be broadly divided into two categories based on investors’ holding times: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and Short-Term Holders (STHs).
- LTHs: These investors held their Bitcoins for more than 155 days. They are generally considered to be more resolute and less likely to panic during market crises.
- HTS: These investors have purchased Bitcoin in the last 155 days. They are typically more reactive to market news and events and may sell more quickly in response to negative sentiment.
LTH Selloff vs. Selloff History
Senior Analyst at CryptoSlate James Van Straten shares a perspective that illuminates the potential of the Mt. Gox cashback event in the market. He shared on his X account how Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Long Term Holders have sold around 1 million BTC in the last five months.
The market has managed to demonstrate impeccable resilience in absorbing these sales. In comparison, Mt. Gox’s payments to its creditors would be 1/10 of the 1 million BTC sold.
Bitcoin’s recent rally, which reached an all-time high this year ahead of the halving, was strong enough to encourage some long-time holders to sell, as indicated by a decrease in its total supply. Van Straten argues that this recent LTH selloff would decrease the amount of Bitcoin released through refunds from Mt.
Data and market analysis
According to on-chain data, research firm Glassnode reported earlier this year that the number of Bitcoin addresses holding coins for more than 5 years has reached a new low, suggesting that some long-term investors were taking profits. The massive move in BTC has raised concerns that Mt. Gox creditors may decide to sell their recovered coins on exchanges, flooding the market and driving down prices.
This fear is amplified by the fact that the average daily flow of Bitcoin on exchanges has hovered around 2016 levels, suggesting potentially less liquidity to absorb a large sell-off.
But compared to this larger LTH sell-off, the impact of the Mt. Gox refunds may be less impactful for the market. It is important to remember that not all creditors who receive your BTCs will immediately sell their recovered Bitcoins. And the distribution has not yet formally entered into force.
Among lenders, some may choose to hold or buy more, based on their individual investment strategies. While the immediate market reaction may be negative due to short-term investor jitters, the long-term impact of the Mt. Gox refunds could be positive. Increased institutional adoption often follows periods of market consolidation, and the resolution of the Mt. Gox saga could improve investor confidence in the overall health of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Conclusion
The Mt.Gox saga and its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin highlight some gaps that can be better addressed at this crucial point in the market’s maturity.
While short-term volatility is expected, especially when large amounts of coins are moved, market stability and an increase in liquidity can boost investor confidence and set a safe tone for the long-term implications of Bitcoin’s performance.
Mentioned in this article
Bitcoin
‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump
Bitcoin has surged again this year under former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.
The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcoinalthough it fell again this week to below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.
Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.
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Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.
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The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.
“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”
John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”
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Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.
Forbes Digital Assets
Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.
According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”
The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.
Bitcoin
Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows
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Bitcoin
Peter Schiff criticizes Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin hype by U.Today
U.Today – Renowned economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff has criticized Michael Saylor’s recent hype about the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies as a strategic treasury asset by corporations.
Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate and president of MicroStrategy, recently shared his enthusiasm on X about the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.
Citing a comment made by Bitcoin investor Bill Miller in a recent interview with CNBC, Saylor tweeted: “We now have more companies coming forward and saying we will put Bitcoin on our balance sheet as a strategic treasury asset.”
However, not everyone shares Saylor’s enthusiasm. Schiff, a vocal Bitcoin critic and gold bull, was quick to respond with his usual skepticism. In a pointed tweet, Schiff argued: “Bitcoin is neither strategic nor appropriate as a treasury asset. Companies should not risk shareholder funds. They should pay dividends and let shareholders risk their own money.”
Bitcoin enthusiasts are not intimidated
However, Schiff’s criticism shouldn’t deter Bitcoin enthusiasts, who often take Schiff’s words with a pinch of salt. To put things in context, Michael Saylor began buying Bitcoin in 2020 as an inflation hedge and alternative to money. Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, is among the largest public holders of Bitcoin in the world. As of June 20, it held 226,331 BTC, purchased for around $8.33 billion at an average price of $36,798.
Over the weekend, Schiff was surprised when 87% of the more than 11,000 Bitcoin holders who responded to his X survey said they would not sell any of their Bitcoin even if the price dropped more than 99% to $120. They said not only would they not sell, but that they would continue to buy even when prices dropped.
Schiff unexpectedly revealed that “the main selling point for investors to buy Bitcoin is its excellent past performance record.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,067, having reached all-time highs of nearly $74,000 in mid-March.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Falls as ETF Flows Reverse, Mt. Gox Moves Billions
In a week of drastic fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated from its highs and is currently trading at US$66,250, down 0.9% in European trading.
This volatility comes on the heels of a significant surge above $70,000 earlier in the week, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s ambitious cryptocurrency plans announced in a Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump’s announcement to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president has temporarily sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy.
However, the excitement was short-lived as a series of events unfolded which caused investor sentiment to sour.
A significant sell-off of about 8% was triggered when the US Marshals Service moved $2 billion in Bitcoin for new wallets.
This move has reignited fears of a potential large-scale liquidation, compounded by lingering concerns over a possible Bitcoin liquidation from Mt. Gox. Early this morning, Mt. Gox administrator transferred US$2.2 billion value of your BTC assets in a new wallet.
Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETF spot market is showing signs of fluctuation, according to data from SoSo Value. On July 30, Bitcoin spot funds experienced their first net outflow in five days, totaling $18.3 million.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw outflows of $73.6 million, while the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $74.9 million in inflows. But outflows from other funds left the category in the red at the end of Tuesday’s trading session. The total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs currently stands at a substantial $58.5 billion.
In other crypto news, Ripple (XRP) is up 8.6% in the past 24 hours, hitting over 64 cents – its highest point since March 25, according to CoinGecko. data.
This rally comes amid a scheduled token unlock and growing optimism around a potential deal in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
The crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s actions, particularly its intention to amend its complaint against Binance regarding “Third-Party Cryptocurrency Securities,” which some interpret as a positive sign for Ripple.
On a market analysis noteSingapore-based cryptocurrency trading desk QCP Capital wrote that while election headlines continue to dominate, several crucial macroeconomic events loom on the horizon.
“Election headlines will continue to be a key focus, but several key macroeconomic events are also on the horizon. Key events starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, megacap tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Meta) throughout the week, and unemployment data on Friday,” QCP Capital wrote.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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