Blockchain
Bitcoin (BTC) profitability is solid despite declining market volumes
Despite the choppy price movement, Bitcoin (BTC) investors’ unrealized profit remains constructive. However, volumes in all aspects of the market are decreasing significantly as a balance has been established between demand and sales forces, according to Glassnode Insights.
Market profitability remains solid
Sideways price movement tends to manifest as investor boredom and apathy, which seems to be the dominant response across all Bitcoin markets. BTC prices are consolidating within a well-established trading range. Investors remain in a generally favorable position, with more than 87% of circulating supply held at profit, with a cost base below the spot price.
Using the MVRV metric, the average coin holds an unrealized profit of approximately +120%, typical of legacy markets trading around the previous ATH cycle. The MVRV ratio remains above its yearly baseline, suggesting that the macro uptrend remains intact.
Currently, the price of BTC is stabilizing and consolidating between the 0.5 and 1 standard deviation range. This once again highlights the statistically high profit that the average investor holds despite the recent unstable market conditions.
Lackluster volume
Despite the good profitability of investors, the size of the volume processed and transferred on the Bitcoin network after ATH has decreased dramatically. This underlines a reduced appetite for speculation and greater indecision in the market.
A similar story can be observed when evaluating spot volume traded on major centralized exchanges. This demonstrates the strong correlation between on-chain network settlement volumes and trading volumes, echoing a feeling of ennui among investors.
Trading activity collapses
Moving one level deeper, on-chain inflows to exchanges in a BTC denomination show a notable reduction in activity. Short-term holders are currently sending approximately +17.4k BTC/day to exchanges, markedly lower than the peak of +55,000 BTC/day seen when the market reached the $73,000 ATH in March. In contrast, the distribution of long-term holders across exchanges is relatively low, with only a marginal 1k+ BTC/day in inflows currently.
Currently, more coins are being transferred into the profit position (+11,000 BTC) than into the loss position (+8.2,000 BTC), suggesting that overall a profit-oriented trend remains, albeit by a relatively small margin. The average coin sent to exchanges is making a profit of around +$5.5k and a cut of -$735 for coins sent at a loss. This implies that HODLers are still disinvesting and that demand is sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure, but not large enough to push market prices higher.
Cash and Carry Operations
Another tool that allows the characterization of spot markets is the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). This metric describes the net bias between the buying and selling volume of market buyers, measured in USD. At present, the spot market is dominated by a clear sell-side trend, however, the market continues to move sideways, indicating that the demand side is approximately equivalent to the sell-side pressure, keeping the market range limited.
In the futures market, there is a sustained increase in open interest, currently above $30 billion, just below its previous high. However, a substantial portion of this open interest is tied to market-neutral cash-and-carry trading. The notable growth in open interest on the CME Group stock exchange highlights a growing presence of institutional investors. The CME Group exchange currently hosts over $10 billion in OI, representing just under a third of the global market share.
Despite growing opening interest, futures trading volumes saw similar declines as spot markets and on-chain transfer volumes. This suggests a relatively light appetite for speculation and greater dominance by set-and-forget trading and arbitrage positions.
Summary and conclusions
Despite the volatile and sideways market conditions, the average Bitcoin investor has remained largely profitable. However, investor resolve has waned, as indicated by contraction in volumes in spot, derivatives and on-chain settlement markets.
It appears that a balance has been established on both the demand and sales sides, resulting in relatively stable prices and a notable lack of volatility. This stagnation in market movements results in a certain degree of boredom, apathy and indecisiveness on the part of investors. Historically, this suggests that a sharp price movement in either direction is needed to stimulate the next round of market activity.
Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for informational and educational purposes only. No investment decisions will be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
The exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are accumulated through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive for maximum accuracy in the representation of foreign exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures may not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We encourage users to exercise caution and discretion when using these metrics. Glassnode will not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
Image source: Shutterstock
Blockchain
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crashes as Donald Trump’s Win Odds Dip
Markets received nominally good news on Thursday morning, with the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July falling much more than economists expected, sending interest rates to multi-month lows across the board. Additionally, initial jobless claims in the US jumped to their highest level in about a year. Taken together, the data adds to the sentiment that the US is on the verge of a cycle of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is typically seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin.
Blockchain
Terra Blockchain Reboots After Reentry Attack Leads to $4M Exploit
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CoinDesk is a awarded press agency that deals with the cryptocurrency sector. Its journalists respect a rigorous set of editorial policiesIn November 2023, CoinDesk has been acquired from the Bullish group, owner of Bullisha regulated digital asset exchange. Bullish Group is majority owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant digital asset holdings, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial board to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, are eligible to receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.
Blockchain
$6.8M Stolen, ASTRO Collapses 60%
In the latest news in the blockchain industry, there has been a turn of events that has severely affected Terra and its users and investors, with the company losing $6.8 million. The attack, which exploited a reentry vulnerability in the network’s IBC hooks, raises questions about the security measures of the once celebrated blockchain protocol.
A web3 security company, Cyvers Alerts reported that the exploit occurred on July 31st and caused the company to lose 60 million ASTRO, 3.5 million USDC500,000 USDTand 2. 7 BitcoinThe flaw was discovered in April and allows cybercriminals to make payments non-stop by withdrawing money from the network.
Earth’s response
Subsequently, to the hack employed on the Terra blockchain, its official X platform declared the Suspension network operations for a few hours to apply the emergency measure. Finally in its sendTerra’s official account agreed, sharing that its operations are back online: the core transactions that make up the platform are now possible again.
However, the overall value of the various assets lost in the event was unclear.
Market Impact: ASTRO Crashes!
The hack had an immediate impact on the price of ASTRO, which dropped nearly 60% to $0.0206 following the network shutdown. This sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of token prices to security breaches and the resulting market volatility.
This incident is not the first time Terra has faced serious challenges. Earlier this year, the blockchain encountered significant problems that called into question its long-term viability. These repeated incidents underscore the need for stronger security measures to protect users’ assets and maintain trust in the network.
The recent Terra hack serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing security challenges in the blockchain space. As the platform works to regain stability, the broader crypto community will be watching closely.
Read also: Record Cryptocurrency Theft: Over $1 Billion Stolen in 2024
This is a major setback for Terra. How do you think this will impact the blockchain industry?
Blockchain
Luxembourg proposes updates to blockchain laws | Insights and resources
On July 24, 2024, the Ministry of Finance proposed Blockchain Bill IVwhich will provide greater flexibility and legal certainty for issuers using Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The bill will update three of Luxembourg’s financial laws, the Law of 6 April 2013 on dematerialised securitiesTHE Law of 5 April 1993 on the financial sector and the Law of 23 December 1998 establishing a financial sector supervisory commissionThis bill includes the additional option of a supervisory agent role and the inclusion of equity securities in dematerialized form.
DLT and Luxembourg
DLT is increasingly used in the financial and fund management sector in Luxembourg, offering numerous benefits and transforming various aspects of the industry.
Here are some examples:
- Digital Bonds: Luxembourg has seen multiple digital bond issuances via DLT. For example, the European Investment Bank has issued bonds that are registered, transferred and stored via DLT processes. These bonds are governed by Luxembourg law and registered on proprietary DLT platforms.
- Fund Administration: DLT can streamline fund administration processes, offering new opportunities and efficiencies for intermediaries, and can do the following:
- Automate capital calls and distributions using smart contracts,
- Simplify audits and ensure reporting accuracy through transparent and immutable transaction records.
- Warranty Management: Luxembourg-based DLT platforms allow clients to swap ownership of baskets of securities between different collateral pools at precise times.
- Tokenization: DLT is used to tokenize various assets, including real estate and luxury goods, by representing them in a tokenized and fractionalized format on the blockchain. This process can improve the liquidity and accessibility of traditionally illiquid assets.
- Tokenization of investment funds: DLT is being explored for the tokenization of investment funds, which can streamline the supply chain, reduce costs, and enable faster transactions. DLT can automate various elements of the supply chain, reducing the need for reconciliations between entities such as custodians, administrators, and investment managers.
- Issuance, settlement and payment platforms:Market participants are developing trusted networks using DLT technology to serve as a single source of shared truth among participants in financial instrument investment ecosystems.
- Legal framework: Luxembourg has adapted its legal framework to accommodate DLT, recognising the validity and enforceability of DLT-based financial instruments. This includes the following:
- Allow the use of DLT for the issuance of dematerialized securities,
- Recognize DLT for the circulation of securities,
- Enabling financial collateral arrangements on DLT financial instruments.
- Regulatory compliance: DLT can improve transparency in fund share ownership and regulatory compliance, providing fund managers with new opportunities for liquidity management and operational efficiency.
- Financial inclusion: By leveraging DLT, Luxembourg aims to promote greater financial inclusion and participation, potentially creating a more diverse and resilient financial system.
- Governance and ethics:The implementation of DLT can promote higher standards of governance and ethics, contributing to a more sustainable and responsible financial sector.
Luxembourg’s approach to DLT in finance and fund management is characterised by a principle of technology neutrality, recognising that innovative processes and technologies can contribute to improving financial services. This is exemplified by its commitment to creating a compatible legal and regulatory framework.
Short story
Luxembourg has already enacted three major blockchain-related laws, often referred to as Blockchain I, II and III.
Blockchain Law I (2019): This law, passed on March 1, 2019, was one of the first in the EU to recognize blockchain as equivalent to traditional transactions. It allowed the use of DLT for account registration, transfer, and materialization of securities.
Blockchain Law II (2021): Enacted on 22 January 2021, this law strengthened the Luxembourg legal framework on dematerialised securities. It recognised the possibility of using secure electronic registration mechanisms to issue such securities and expanded access for all credit institutions and investment firms.
Blockchain Act III (2023): Also known as Bill 8055, this is the most recent law in the blockchain field and was passed on March 14, 2023. This law has integrated the Luxembourg DLT framework in the following way:
- Update of the Act of 5 August 2005 on provisions relating to financial collateral to enable the use of electronic DLT as collateral on financial instruments registered in securities accounts,
- Implementation of EU Regulation 2022/858 on a pilot scheme for DLT-based market infrastructures (DLT Pilot Regulation),
- Redefining the notion of financial instruments in Law of 5 April 1993 on the financial sector and the Law of 30 May 2018 on financial instruments markets to align with the corresponding European regulations, including MiFID.
The Blockchain III Act strengthened the collateral rules for digital assets and aimed to increase legal certainty by allowing securities accounts on DLT to be pledged, while maintaining the efficient system of the 2005 Act on Financial Collateral Arrangements.
With the Blockchain IV bill, Luxembourg will build on the foundations laid by previous Blockchain laws and aims to consolidate Luxembourg’s position as a leading hub for financial innovation in Europe.
Blockchain Bill IV
The key provisions of the Blockchain IV bill include the following:
- Expanded scope: The bill expands the Luxembourg DLT legal framework to include equity securities in addition to debt securities. This expansion will allow the fund industry and transfer agents to use DLT to manage registers of shares and units, as well as to process fund shares.
- New role of the control agent: The bill introduces the role of a control agent as an alternative to the central account custodian for the issuance of dematerialised securities via DLT. This control agent can be an EU investment firm or a credit institution chosen by the issuer. This new role does not replace the current central account custodian, but, like all other roles, it must be notified to the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF), which is designated as the competent supervisory authority. The notification must be submitted two months after the control agent starts its activities.
- Responsibilities of the control agent: The control agent will manage the securities issuance account, verify the consistency between the securities issued and those registered on the DLT network, and supervise the chain of custody of the securities at the account holder and investor level.
- Simplified payment processesThe bill allows issuers to meet payment obligations under securities (such as interest, dividends or repayments) as soon as they have paid the relevant amounts to the paying agent, settlement agent or central account custodian.
- Simplified issuance and reconciliationThe bill simplifies the process of issuing, holding and reconciling dematerialized securities through DLT, eliminating the need for a central custodian to have a second level of custody and allowing securities to be credited directly to the accounts of investors or their delegates.
- Smart Contract Integration:The new processes can be executed using smart contracts with the assistance of the control agent, potentially increasing efficiency and reducing intermediation.
These changes are expected to bring several benefits to the Luxembourg financial sector, including:
- Fund Operations: Greater efficiency and reduced costs by leveraging DLT for the issuance and transfer of fund shares.
- Financial transactions: Greater transparency and security.
- Transparency of the regulatory environment: Increased attractiveness and competitiveness of the Luxembourg financial centre through greater legal clarity and flexibility for issuers and investors using DLT.
- Smart Contracts: Potential for automation of contractual terms, reduction of intermediaries and improvement of transaction traceability through smart contracts.
Blockchain Bill IV is part of Luxembourg’s ongoing strategy to develop a strong digital ecosystem as part of its economy and maintain its status as a leading hub for financial innovation. Luxembourg is positioning itself at the forefront of Europe’s growing digital financial landscape by constantly updating its regulatory framework.
Local regulations, such as Luxembourg law, complement European regulations by providing a more specific legal framework, adapted to local specificities. These local laws, together with European initiatives, aim to improve both the use and the security of projects involving new technologies. They help establish clear standards and promote consumer trust, while promoting innovation and ensuring better protection against potential risks associated with these emerging technologies. Check out our latest posts on these topics and, for more information on this law, blockchain technology and the tokenization mechanism, do not hesitate to contact us.
We are available to discuss any project related to digital finance, cryptocurrencies and disruptive technologies.
This informational piece, which may be considered advertising under the ethics rules of some jurisdictions, is provided with the understanding that it does not constitute the rendering of legal or other professional advice by Goodwin or its attorneys. Past results do not guarantee a similar outcome.
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