Bitcoin
Bitcoin just did something it has only done three times before. Cryptocurrency usually does this next.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) soared 140% last year as economic resilience drew investors back into risky assets. Other factors have also contributed to this price appreciation, especially the excitement surrounding spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the halving of Bitcoin block subsidies.
To elaborate, Bitcoin’s supply is limited to 21 million coins, and this supply limit is enforced by the periodic halving of block subsidies. The first three halving events occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020, and the most recent occurred on April 19, 2024. But investors were excited for months as Bitcoin soared consistently during the four-year period following the halving events.
Keep reading to find out more.
The fourth Bitcoin halving event occurred in April 2024
Bitcoin miners earn block rewards when they validate a group of transactions (called a block) and add it to the blockchain. Block rewards include two sources of revenue: (1) transaction fees determined by network traffic and data volume and (2) block subsidies encoded in the Bitcoin protocol.
Block grants represent newly minted Bitcoin. They are paid every time a new block is generated, which happens once every 10 minutes. However, the subsidy is reduced by 50% each time 210,000 blocks are added to the blockchain, which happens once every four years.
As mentioned, the most recent halving event occurred on April 19, 2024, when the block subsidy was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Investors are excited about the implications of this event because halving block subsidies naturally reduces selling pressure. In other words, the amount of newly minted Bitcoins will decrease by 50% over the next four years, meaning miners will have fewer Bitcoins to sell.
As a result, halving events have historically led to significant price appreciation, as shown in the chart below.
November 28, 2012 |
$12 |
$647 |
5,291% |
July 9, 2016 |
$647 |
$8,821 |
1,263% |
May 11, 2020 |
$8,821 |
$63,462 |
619% |
Data source: Morgan Stanley, YCharts.
Bitcoin has returned an average of 2,391% and a median of 1,263% between previous halving events. However, neither outcome is likely this time because the gains have become weaker with each subsequent halving. In other words, history says Bitcoin will be worth more four years from now, but the implied upside is less than 619%.
However, this technical analysis is flawed because three data points can hardly be considered a trend. Furthermore, it does not take into account the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a recent development that could unlock huge demand for Bitcoin in the coming years.
The story continues
Spot Bitcoin ETFs could increase demand for the cryptocurrency
The law of supply and demand stipulates that asset prices are directly correlated with demand and inversely correlated with supply. In other words, prices reflect changes in demand, but counteract changes in supply. Bitcoin obeys this law, but demand is the most important variable, as its supply is fixed.
To that end, Fidelity analysts assess whether demand is increasing or decreasing in a quarterly report that analyzes various market signals. The most recent report classified the long-term outlook (greater than five years) as neutral, meaning that certain metrics suggest strengthening demand, while others point to weakening demand. However, the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could easily tilt the outlook bullish in the coming quarters.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide direct exposure to Bitcoin without the inconveniences inherent in cryptocurrency exchanges. Investors no longer need to create specialized accounts and pay high fees for each transaction. Instead, they can effectively purchase Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts, most of which offer zero-commission trading. Many analysts believe the value proposition could bring more institutional and retail money into the market.
In fact, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank believes ETF flows could push the price of Bitcoin to $250,000 by 2025. Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors says the catalyst could drive its price to $500,000 in five years. Finally, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will eventually capture about 5% of institutional assets, bringing their price to $3.8 million.
Here’s the bottom line: Investors should never fixate on price targets, but the recent halving of Bitcoin block subsidies and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could certainly translate into price appreciation in the coming years. Investors who are patient and comfortable with risk should consider purchasing a small position in Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin just did something it has only done three times before. Cryptocurrency usually does this next. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Bitcoin
‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump
Bitcoin has surged again this year under former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.
The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcoinalthough it fell again this week to below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.
Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.
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Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.
Getty Images
The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.
“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”
John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”
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Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.
Forbes Digital Assets
Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.
According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”
The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.
Bitcoin
Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows
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Bitcoin
Peter Schiff criticizes Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin hype by U.Today
U.Today – Renowned economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff has criticized Michael Saylor’s recent hype about the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies as a strategic treasury asset by corporations.
Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate and president of MicroStrategy, recently shared his enthusiasm on X about the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.
Citing a comment made by Bitcoin investor Bill Miller in a recent interview with CNBC, Saylor tweeted: “We now have more companies coming forward and saying we will put Bitcoin on our balance sheet as a strategic treasury asset.”
However, not everyone shares Saylor’s enthusiasm. Schiff, a vocal Bitcoin critic and gold bull, was quick to respond with his usual skepticism. In a pointed tweet, Schiff argued: “Bitcoin is neither strategic nor appropriate as a treasury asset. Companies should not risk shareholder funds. They should pay dividends and let shareholders risk their own money.”
Bitcoin enthusiasts are not intimidated
However, Schiff’s criticism shouldn’t deter Bitcoin enthusiasts, who often take Schiff’s words with a pinch of salt. To put things in context, Michael Saylor began buying Bitcoin in 2020 as an inflation hedge and alternative to money. Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, is among the largest public holders of Bitcoin in the world. As of June 20, it held 226,331 BTC, purchased for around $8.33 billion at an average price of $36,798.
Over the weekend, Schiff was surprised when 87% of the more than 11,000 Bitcoin holders who responded to his X survey said they would not sell any of their Bitcoin even if the price dropped more than 99% to $120. They said not only would they not sell, but that they would continue to buy even when prices dropped.
Schiff unexpectedly revealed that “the main selling point for investors to buy Bitcoin is its excellent past performance record.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,067, having reached all-time highs of nearly $74,000 in mid-March.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Falls as ETF Flows Reverse, Mt. Gox Moves Billions
In a week of drastic fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated from its highs and is currently trading at US$66,250, down 0.9% in European trading.
This volatility comes on the heels of a significant surge above $70,000 earlier in the week, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s ambitious cryptocurrency plans announced in a Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump’s announcement to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president has temporarily sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy.
However, the excitement was short-lived as a series of events unfolded which caused investor sentiment to sour.
A significant sell-off of about 8% was triggered when the US Marshals Service moved $2 billion in Bitcoin for new wallets.
This move has reignited fears of a potential large-scale liquidation, compounded by lingering concerns over a possible Bitcoin liquidation from Mt. Gox. Early this morning, Mt. Gox administrator transferred US$2.2 billion value of your BTC assets in a new wallet.
Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETF spot market is showing signs of fluctuation, according to data from SoSo Value. On July 30, Bitcoin spot funds experienced their first net outflow in five days, totaling $18.3 million.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw outflows of $73.6 million, while the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $74.9 million in inflows. But outflows from other funds left the category in the red at the end of Tuesday’s trading session. The total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs currently stands at a substantial $58.5 billion.
In other crypto news, Ripple (XRP) is up 8.6% in the past 24 hours, hitting over 64 cents – its highest point since March 25, according to CoinGecko. data.
This rally comes amid a scheduled token unlock and growing optimism around a potential deal in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
The crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s actions, particularly its intention to amend its complaint against Binance regarding “Third-Party Cryptocurrency Securities,” which some interpret as a positive sign for Ripple.
On a market analysis noteSingapore-based cryptocurrency trading desk QCP Capital wrote that while election headlines continue to dominate, several crucial macroeconomic events loom on the horizon.
“Election headlines will continue to be a key focus, but several key macroeconomic events are also on the horizon. Key events starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, megacap tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Meta) throughout the week, and unemployment data on Friday,” QCP Capital wrote.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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