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That’s why some cryptocurrency investors think there’s a meme coin supercycle right now
One of the most popular narratives among cryptocurrency investors over the past six months is that the cryptocurrency sector is currently at the beginning of a “meme coin supercycle” that will send memetic currency ratings in the stratosphere. Similar claims have also been made in the past during cryptocurrency bull runs, and regardless of whether they were true or not, correctly positioned investors behaved like bandits.
So let’s take a break to dive into the meme coin supercycle hypothesis to see how plausible it is and how you can make money from the continued surge of interest in the segment, whether the highest predictions come true or not.
The case for the supercycle
The halving of Bitcoin‘S (Bitcoin 1.32%) mining reward, which occurred at the end of April, is proposed as the starting point of the supercycle. The theory goes that once the price of Bitcoin adjusts upward to account for the permanent reduction in the further supply of new coins through mining, it will take the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem with it, either immediately or after its run on the upside it will have exhausted itself. The idea is that investors will be willing to liquidate some of their supposedly huge gains to chase growth elsewhere once Bitcoin’s momentum runs out.
At the same time, driving the bull run will be huge amounts of new capital expected to flow in following the approval of the exchange traded funds (ETFs) as the Grayscale Bitcoin Confidence by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Before, investors would at least need some sort of cryptocurrency trading account to invest; with ETFs, people can purchase a stock whose value is closely tied to Bitcoin from their retirement accounts, thus opening the door for even greater demand to combat the newly limited coin supply. If other ETFs are approved, such as Ethereumit may also have an additional ancillary effect.
Solana (SOL 1.56%), a popular one blockchain to trade meme coins like Dogwifhat at this time, it will presumably be the main beneficiary of capital inflows into Bitcoin. The argument here is that for new investors it is the easiest chain to navigate, as it works quickly, requires minimal fees and has a large selection of serious crypto projects in decentralized finance (DeFi) as well as countless meme coins with no intended use.
Furthermore, there is reason to believe that investors in general are interested in gaining exposure to meme coins. Venture capital groups and hedge funds are now starting to seriously dabble in meme coin investing, as they want to capture some of the absurd returns that can sometimes be achieved in this industry. Furthermore, as of 2021 many small investors are familiar with the idea of a meme coin, having invested in it Dogemoneta OR Shiba Inu and I saw their impressive runs.
Then there is the situation with inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempt to crack down on it. Cryptocurrency investors who support the supercycle suggest that the Fed will likely cut the prime interest rate at least once in 2024. As the cost of borrowing money falls, there is therefore more capital to spend along the risk curve than at first, and towards more speculative investments such as memes.
Finally, supercycle advocates point to a growing sense of economic discontent among young cryptocurrency investors. These investors have faced significant financial barriers to achieving their life and money goals, especially for key outcomes like homeownership, and are therefore becoming increasingly nihilistic about their likelihood of future success. So their supposed desire to invest in the riskier corners of the cryptocurrency, where they believe there are life-changing returns lurking, will drive the meme coin bull market even more intensely even after Bitcoin’s catalysts run out.
Don’t put the horse before the cart
So far it is ambiguous whether the meme money supercycle hypothesis will be proven true or false. That said, most of the arguments in favor pass the smell test.
The halving process it will ultimately result in a lower supply of Bitcoin and the ETF will make it easier for capital to enter crypto ecosystem. Solana is truly the lowest friction chain to use in my experience, and there is already a rich set of software and hardware tools that investors may need to research and transact. The meme coins of the moment are on that chain and are gaining public awareness by the day.
But predicting the odds of a rate cut is imprecise at best. Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s decisions on the matter have been proven wrong several times over the last year.
Likewise, there are likely to be at least some disenchanted young cryptocurrency investors. However, predicting that their desperation will drive them to invest in large amounts in meme coins within a specific time frame is a bit of an exaggeration, even if the gist of it makes sense.
Don’t take this to mean that you should or shouldn’t invest in meme coins or other cryptocurrencies at this time. If your wallet is diversified and you have some extra capital to put towards a riskier investment, it’s worth considering buying a coin like Solana or Bitcoin to get started. And if you can tolerate the volatility, picking a meme coin or two to make a small investment might be appropriate – just don’t get caught up in the hype about the supercycle and overcommit if it starts to pick up.
Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Shiba Inu, Solana and WIF. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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Cryptocurrency Price August 1: Bitcoin Dips Below $65K; Solana, XRP Down Up To 8%
Major cryptocurrencies fell in Thursday trading following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged. Overnight, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive time, as expected, while also signaling the possibility of a rate cut at its next meeting in September. The unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee reflects a continued wait-and-see approach as it monitors inflation trends.
CoinSwitch Markets Desk said: “Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000 after the US Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. However, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September, the outlook for a Bitcoin rally by the end of the year has strengthened.”
Meanwhile, CoinDCX research team said: “The crypto market has plunged after the Fed decision. Tomorrow’s US unemployment rate announcement is expected to induce more volatility, with the ‘actual’ figure coming in higher than the ‘expected’ one, which is positive for cryptocurrencies.”
At 12:21 pm IST, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.2% at $64,285, while Ethereum was down nearly 4.5% at $3,313. Meanwhile, the global market cryptocurrency The market capitalization fell 3.6% to around $2.3 trillion in the last 24 hours.
“Bitcoin needs to clear its 200-day EMA at $64,510 to consolidate further. Otherwise, a retest of $62,000 could be in the cards,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.
Altcoins and meme coins, such as BNB (3%), Solana (8%), XRP (5.7%), Dogecoin (5%), Cardano (4.6%), Avalanche (4.3%), Shiba Inu (3.8%), Polkadot (3.4%), and Chainlink (4%) also saw declines.
The volume of all stablecoins is now $71.64 billion, which is 92.19% of the total cryptocurrency market volume in 24 hours, according to data available on CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 54.99%. BTC volume in the last 24 hours increased by 23.3% to $35.7 billion.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views provided by experts are personal. They do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Altcoins WIF, BONK, RUNE, JUP Down 10% While Bitcoin Drops 4%
Altcoins dogwifhat, Bonk, THORChain, and Jupiter have suffered losses of more than 10%, while Bitcoin is down 4% in the last 24 hours.
After a period of relative calm yesterday, July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) price action has seen a drastic change as the cryptocurrency dropped by more than $3,500, bringing its value to $63,300. At the same time, altcoins mirrored this trend, with the total value of liquidated positions rising to nearly $225 million over the course of the day.
Initially, the week started on a positive note for Bitcoin, which reached its highest point since early June, hitting $70,000. However, this peak was short-lived, as it was quickly rejected, leading to a substantial decline, with Bitcoin falling below $65,500.
The cryptocurrency managed to regain some stability, trading comfortably at around $66,800. However, following a Press conference According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the value of Bitcoin has fallen again to $64,300, down more than 3% in 24 hours.
BTC Price Chart 24 Hours | Source: crypto.news
The recession coincided with a relationship from the New York Times stating that Iran had called for retaliatory measures against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, increasing the risk of further conflict in the region.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rates in place, offering little information on a planned September rate cut. Powell also hinted that while no concrete decisions have been made on the September adjustment, there is growing consensus that a rate cut is likely.
Amid Bitcoin’s decline, altcoins have suffered even more significant losses. For example, dogwifhat (Wife) saw a 12.4% drop and (DISGUST) has suffered a 10% drop. Other altcoins such as THORChain (RUNE) also fell by 10%, while Jupiter (JUPITER) and the Ethereum naming service (ENS) decreased by 8% and 9% respectively.
Among the largest-cap cryptocurrencies, the biggest losers are Solana (SOL) with a decrease of 8%, (Exchange rate risk) down 6%, Cardano (ADA) down 4%, and both Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recording a decrease of 4.4%.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that approximately 67,000 traders have been negatively impacted by this increased volatility. BTC positions have seen $61.85 million in liquidations, while ETH positions have faced $61 million. In total, the value of liquidated positions stands at $225.4 million at the time of writing.
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Riot Platforms Sees 52% Drop in Bitcoin Production in Q2
Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms has released its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a decline in cryptocurrency mined due to the recent halving.
Colorado-based Bitcoin (BTC) mining company Riot platforms revealed its second quarter financial results, highlighting a significant reduction in mined cryptocurrencies attributed to the recent halving event that took place in early April.
The company reported total revenue of $70 million for the quarter ended July 31, a decline of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Riot Platforms attributed the revenue decline primarily to a $9.7 million decrease in engineering revenue, which was partially mitigated by a $6 million increase in Bitcoin extraction income.
During the quarter, the company mined 844 BTC, representing a decline of over 50% from Q2 2023, citing the halving event and increasing network difficulty as major factors behind the decline. Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million, or $0.32 per share, missing Zacks Research forecast a loss of $0.16 per share.
Halving increases competitive pressure
The Colorado-based firm said the average cost of mining one BTC in the second quarter, including energy credits, rose to $25,327, a remarkable 341% increase from $5,734 per BTC in the same quarter of 2023. Despite this significant increase in production costs, the firm remains optimistic about maintaining competitiveness through recent deals.
For example, following the Recent acquisition Cryptocurrency firm Block Mining, Riot has increased its distributed hash rate forecast from 31 EH/s to 36 EH/s by the end of 2024, while also increasing its 2025 forecast from 40 EH/s to 56 EH/s.
Riot Platforms Hashrate Growth Projections by 2027 | Source: Riot Platforms
Commenting on the company’s financials, Riot CEO Jason Les said that despite the halving, the mining company still managed to achieve “significant operational growth and execution of our long-term strategy.”
“Despite this reduction in production available to all Bitcoin miners, Riot reported $70 million in revenue for the quarter and maintained strong gross margins in our core Bitcoin mining business.”
Jason Les
Following its Q2 financial report, Riot Platforms shares fell 1.74% to $10.19, according to Google Finance data. Meanwhile, the American miner continues to chase Canadian rival Bitfarms, recently acquiring an additional 10.2 million BITF shares, increasing its stake in Bitfarms to 15.9%.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Riot was the first announced a $950 million takeover bid for Bitfarms in late May, arguing that Bitfarms’ founders were not acting in the best interests of all shareholders. They said their proposal was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive engagement.
In response, Bitfarms She said that Riot’s offer “significantly understates” its growth prospects. Bitfarms subsequently implemented a shareholder rights plan, also known as a “poison pill,” to protect its strategic review process from hostile takeover attempts.
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Aave Price Increases Following Whales Accumulation and V3.1 Launch
Decentralized finance protocol Aave is seeing a significant spike in whale activity as the market looks to recover from the recent crash that pushed most altcoins into key support areas earlier this week.
July 31, Lookonchain shared details indicating that the whales had aggressively accumulated Aave (AAVE) over the past two days. According to the data, whales have withdrawn over 58,848 AAVE worth $6.47 million from exchanges during this period.
In one instance, whale address 0x9af4 withdrew 11,185 AAVE worth $1.23 million from Binance. Meanwhile, another address moved 21,619 AAVE worth over $2.38 million from the exchange and deposited the tokens into Aave.
These withdrawals follow a previous transfer of 26,044 AAVE from whale address 0xd7c5, amounting to over $2.83 million withdrawn from Binance.
AAVE price has surged over 7% in the past 24 hours amid buy-side pressure from these whales. The DeFi token is currently trading around $111 after jumping over 18% in the past week.
Recently, the price of AAVE increased by over 8% after Aave founder Marc Zeller announced a proposed fee change aimed at adopting a buyback program for AAVE tokens.
Aave v3.1 is available
The total value locked in the Aave protocol currently stands at around $22 billion. According to DeFiLlamaApproximately $19.9 billion is on Aave V3, while the V2 chain still holds approximately $1.9 billion in TVL and V1 approximately $14.6 million.
Aave Labs announced Previously, Aave V3.1 was made available on all networks with active Aave V3 instances.
V3.1 features improvements that are intended to improve the overall security of the DeFi protocol. The Aave DAO governance has approved the v3.1 improvements, which also include operational efficiency and usability for the network.
Meanwhile, Aave Labs recently outlined a ambitious roadmap for the projectwith a 2030 vision for Aave V4, among other developments.
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