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The Implications of the Ethereum ETF and Beyond
Disclosure: The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the views and opinions of the crypto.news editorial team.
After launching our Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds In Hong Kong, we have experienced first-hand the unlocking that comes with increased visibility among investors. We have seen an immediate shift in the excitement, tone and tenor of our conversations with investors, both institutional and retail, who have seen this moment as a shift in legitimacy for the asset class.
So, like Ethereum (ETH) ETFs begin trading on one of the world’s largest exchanges this week, and we see this as another milestone on the path to full integration of digital assets into traditional finance. The move paves the way for more diversified financial products, including cryptocurrency basket ETFs, staking options ETFs, tokenized securities, and other financial innovations.
So what will be the real impact of expanded access to ETH as an investment class? Will we see ATH in the coming months? How can we overcome the complexity of Ethereum as an infrastructure versus Bitcoin’s reputation as digital gold? Let’s explore these questions and how they might lead to a more gradual adoption curve among investors.
The BTC Effect
When you spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs debuted, seeing over $25 billion traded in the first month. It is unlikely that Ethereum ETFs will match this volume initially, considering that Ethereum’s 24-hour average trading volume is currently 70% off Bitcoin. We expect Ethereum spot ETFs to trade between $15 billion and $20 billion in the first month.
Of course, it is possible that inflows will be larger than we expect. This would indicate a bullish sentiment that could drive momentum and give Ethereum a positive psychological boost as an accepted asset class for investors of all types.
However, many investors will directly compare ETH to BTC, and this is a major challenge to the message. If BTC is digital gold, then what is ETH? How do investors fit it into their diversified portfolios? The success of the ETH ETF depends on its marketing, which must focus on ETH as a utility layer for the cryptocurrency industry.
Potential for a price rally
By the end of the year, we expect Ethereum to be priced between $6,000 and $10,000. This price represents 1.6x to 2.5x its 52-week high. Our relatively bullish outlook on Ethereum is driven by rising demand from ETF introductions, growing interest in Ethereum-linked calls, and growing adoption of ERC-20 Tokens and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
While initial ETF launches could push Ethereum higher, there could be short-term outflows from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust, similar to what we’ve seen with Bitcoin ETFs. Investors could shift funds into lower-fee options, temporarily impacting market sentiment.
The launch of an Ethereum ETF could trigger a modest price rally for ETH, driven by rising demand. This rally could also positively impact other cryptocurrencies through a spillover effect. However, the macroeconomic environment will significantly impact the long-term trajectory of digital assets. If the bearish headwinds subside and optimism grows with the advent of new funds, Ethereum could see more price swings.
The sustainability of these gains will depend on external factors such as stock prices, interest rates, emerging sectors and institutional adoption rates. There is also the election year in the United States, which injects a modicum of uncertainty into the medium-term appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Staking Rewards: Retail vs Institutional
One potential limitation of Ethereum ETFs is the lack of staking rewards, a significant incentive to hold Ethereum directly. Staking allows investors to earn rewards, making it attractive to those comfortable with self-custody. This could limit its appeal to crypto natives, who may not consider adding ETH to their brokerage accounts.
Unlike retail investors, ETFs provide a regulated and convenient way for institutional investors to gain exposure to Ethereum without having to manage direct ownership. Strong institutional interest in ETH suggests a growing acceptance of ETFs as exposure tools, even without staking returns. Work is underway with regulators to potentially introduce a staking ETH ETF in the future, which could improve market competitiveness.
However, staking is not the deciding factor. And income is not the main reason why many investors would want to add ETH ETFs to their portfolios. Instead, they are looking for price appreciation and exposure to the digital asset vertical.
Institutional adoption
Institutional interest in Ethereum may differ from Bitcoin ETFs because of Ethereum’s potential as an infrastructure layer for decentralized applications across industries, including finance, supply chain, and technology. These industries offer significant opportunities, making Ethereum attractive beyond simply being a store of value like Bitcoin. And as regulatory frameworks evolve and provide greater clarity and certainty, institutions may find Ethereum a valuable addition to portfolio diversification.
Staking is a major draw for institutional investors considering Ethereum ETFs. Institutional staking within crypto ETFs represents a sophisticated means of generating returns by leveraging the intrinsic value of staked assets.
This could potentially outperform traditional fixed income instruments by providing a steady return that protects against market volatility. Incorporating staking into crypto ETFs potentially allows institutions to maximize asset utilization by capturing price appreciation and generating additional returns through staking rewards. This dual-purpose approach can optimize overall investment strategies and could stabilize fund performance in down markets.
Additionally, institutional participation in staking could improve governance within the ecosystem, encouraging stronger regulatory guidance from regulators and creating a safer, more transparent environment that benefits everyone. This is most evident when it comes to liquidity, as institutions tend to provide more reliable support over time as they become more comfortable with an asset class prone to instability and volatility.
A positive catalyst
The approval of Ethereum ETFs promises to be a catalyst for market growth, attracting significant capital inflows from investors who prefer the regulated environment of traditional financial markets. As each new jurisdiction approves cryptocurrency-related financial products, it attracts new investors who were previously hesitant due to regulatory uncertainty, thus expanding the market.
More importantly, this exposure will add legitimacy to Ethereum in the public eye, which will benefit the broader digital asset ecosystem. We will see more people consider investing not only in other digital assets, but also in companies innovating in the broader blockchain ecosystem.
We see potential for a rotation into utilities, as investors consider projects that address real-world solutions and have the potential to disrupt industries on a global scale. We could also see a push into defi, as financial products that bridge the gap between traditional and decentralized finance become more attractive as investors become more comfortable with digital assets.
And while initial trading volumes may not match those of Bitcoin ETFs, the long-term impact on Ethereum and the broader crypto ecosystem promises to be substantial, paving the way for greater awareness and innovation that will enable the future of finance.
Vivien Wong
Vivien Wong leads the licensed asset management business at HashKey Capital, a global leader in digital assets and blockchain technologies. Vivien was instrumental in bringing crypto spot ETFs to market in Hong Kong. Prior to HashKey Capital, she served as Managing Director of Huobi Asset Management in Asia. Vivien has also held various roles at Fosun Group and Deutsche Bank, where she focused on investment and research in new sectors of the economy, including artificial intelligence, cloud computing and healthcare. Vivien began her career at Barclays Global Investors. She holds an MBA from Warwick Business School and a BA from the University of Hong Kong.
News
Cryptocurrency Price August 1: Bitcoin Dips Below $65K; Solana, XRP Down Up To 8%
Major cryptocurrencies fell in Thursday trading following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged. Overnight, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive time, as expected, while also signaling the possibility of a rate cut at its next meeting in September. The unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee reflects a continued wait-and-see approach as it monitors inflation trends.
CoinSwitch Markets Desk said: “Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000 after the US Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. However, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September, the outlook for a Bitcoin rally by the end of the year has strengthened.”
Meanwhile, CoinDCX research team said: “The crypto market has plunged after the Fed decision. Tomorrow’s US unemployment rate announcement is expected to induce more volatility, with the ‘actual’ figure coming in higher than the ‘expected’ one, which is positive for cryptocurrencies.”
At 12:21 pm IST, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.2% at $64,285, while Ethereum was down nearly 4.5% at $3,313. Meanwhile, the global market cryptocurrency The market capitalization fell 3.6% to around $2.3 trillion in the last 24 hours.
“Bitcoin needs to clear its 200-day EMA at $64,510 to consolidate further. Otherwise, a retest of $62,000 could be in the cards,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.
Altcoins and meme coins, such as BNB (3%), Solana (8%), XRP (5.7%), Dogecoin (5%), Cardano (4.6%), Avalanche (4.3%), Shiba Inu (3.8%), Polkadot (3.4%), and Chainlink (4%) also saw declines.
The volume of all stablecoins is now $71.64 billion, which is 92.19% of the total cryptocurrency market volume in 24 hours, according to data available on CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 54.99%. BTC volume in the last 24 hours increased by 23.3% to $35.7 billion.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views provided by experts are personal. They do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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News
Altcoins WIF, BONK, RUNE, JUP Down 10% While Bitcoin Drops 4%
Altcoins dogwifhat, Bonk, THORChain, and Jupiter have suffered losses of more than 10%, while Bitcoin is down 4% in the last 24 hours.
After a period of relative calm yesterday, July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) price action has seen a drastic change as the cryptocurrency dropped by more than $3,500, bringing its value to $63,300. At the same time, altcoins mirrored this trend, with the total value of liquidated positions rising to nearly $225 million over the course of the day.
Initially, the week started on a positive note for Bitcoin, which reached its highest point since early June, hitting $70,000. However, this peak was short-lived, as it was quickly rejected, leading to a substantial decline, with Bitcoin falling below $65,500.
The cryptocurrency managed to regain some stability, trading comfortably at around $66,800. However, following a Press conference According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the value of Bitcoin has fallen again to $64,300, down more than 3% in 24 hours.
BTC Price Chart 24 Hours | Source: crypto.news
The recession coincided with a relationship from the New York Times stating that Iran had called for retaliatory measures against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, increasing the risk of further conflict in the region.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rates in place, offering little information on a planned September rate cut. Powell also hinted that while no concrete decisions have been made on the September adjustment, there is growing consensus that a rate cut is likely.
Amid Bitcoin’s decline, altcoins have suffered even more significant losses. For example, dogwifhat (Wife) saw a 12.4% drop and (DISGUST) has suffered a 10% drop. Other altcoins such as THORChain (RUNE) also fell by 10%, while Jupiter (JUPITER) and the Ethereum naming service (ENS) decreased by 8% and 9% respectively.
Among the largest-cap cryptocurrencies, the biggest losers are Solana (SOL) with a decrease of 8%, (Exchange rate risk) down 6%, Cardano (ADA) down 4%, and both Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recording a decrease of 4.4%.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that approximately 67,000 traders have been negatively impacted by this increased volatility. BTC positions have seen $61.85 million in liquidations, while ETH positions have faced $61 million. In total, the value of liquidated positions stands at $225.4 million at the time of writing.
News
Riot Platforms Sees 52% Drop in Bitcoin Production in Q2
Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms has released its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a decline in cryptocurrency mined due to the recent halving.
Colorado-based Bitcoin (BTC) mining company Riot platforms revealed its second quarter financial results, highlighting a significant reduction in mined cryptocurrencies attributed to the recent halving event that took place in early April.
The company reported total revenue of $70 million for the quarter ended July 31, a decline of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Riot Platforms attributed the revenue decline primarily to a $9.7 million decrease in engineering revenue, which was partially mitigated by a $6 million increase in Bitcoin extraction income.
During the quarter, the company mined 844 BTC, representing a decline of over 50% from Q2 2023, citing the halving event and increasing network difficulty as major factors behind the decline. Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million, or $0.32 per share, missing Zacks Research forecast a loss of $0.16 per share.
Halving increases competitive pressure
The Colorado-based firm said the average cost of mining one BTC in the second quarter, including energy credits, rose to $25,327, a remarkable 341% increase from $5,734 per BTC in the same quarter of 2023. Despite this significant increase in production costs, the firm remains optimistic about maintaining competitiveness through recent deals.
For example, following the Recent acquisition Cryptocurrency firm Block Mining, Riot has increased its distributed hash rate forecast from 31 EH/s to 36 EH/s by the end of 2024, while also increasing its 2025 forecast from 40 EH/s to 56 EH/s.
Riot Platforms Hashrate Growth Projections by 2027 | Source: Riot Platforms
Commenting on the company’s financials, Riot CEO Jason Les said that despite the halving, the mining company still managed to achieve “significant operational growth and execution of our long-term strategy.”
“Despite this reduction in production available to all Bitcoin miners, Riot reported $70 million in revenue for the quarter and maintained strong gross margins in our core Bitcoin mining business.”
Jason Les
Following its Q2 financial report, Riot Platforms shares fell 1.74% to $10.19, according to Google Finance data. Meanwhile, the American miner continues to chase Canadian rival Bitfarms, recently acquiring an additional 10.2 million BITF shares, increasing its stake in Bitfarms to 15.9%.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Riot was the first announced a $950 million takeover bid for Bitfarms in late May, arguing that Bitfarms’ founders were not acting in the best interests of all shareholders. They said their proposal was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive engagement.
In response, Bitfarms She said that Riot’s offer “significantly understates” its growth prospects. Bitfarms subsequently implemented a shareholder rights plan, also known as a “poison pill,” to protect its strategic review process from hostile takeover attempts.
News
Aave Price Increases Following Whales Accumulation and V3.1 Launch
Decentralized finance protocol Aave is seeing a significant spike in whale activity as the market looks to recover from the recent crash that pushed most altcoins into key support areas earlier this week.
July 31, Lookonchain shared details indicating that the whales had aggressively accumulated Aave (AAVE) over the past two days. According to the data, whales have withdrawn over 58,848 AAVE worth $6.47 million from exchanges during this period.
In one instance, whale address 0x9af4 withdrew 11,185 AAVE worth $1.23 million from Binance. Meanwhile, another address moved 21,619 AAVE worth over $2.38 million from the exchange and deposited the tokens into Aave.
These withdrawals follow a previous transfer of 26,044 AAVE from whale address 0xd7c5, amounting to over $2.83 million withdrawn from Binance.
AAVE price has surged over 7% in the past 24 hours amid buy-side pressure from these whales. The DeFi token is currently trading around $111 after jumping over 18% in the past week.
Recently, the price of AAVE increased by over 8% after Aave founder Marc Zeller announced a proposed fee change aimed at adopting a buyback program for AAVE tokens.
Aave v3.1 is available
The total value locked in the Aave protocol currently stands at around $22 billion. According to DeFiLlamaApproximately $19.9 billion is on Aave V3, while the V2 chain still holds approximately $1.9 billion in TVL and V1 approximately $14.6 million.
Aave Labs announced Previously, Aave V3.1 was made available on all networks with active Aave V3 instances.
V3.1 features improvements that are intended to improve the overall security of the DeFi protocol. The Aave DAO governance has approved the v3.1 improvements, which also include operational efficiency and usability for the network.
Meanwhile, Aave Labs recently outlined a ambitious roadmap for the projectwith a 2030 vision for Aave V4, among other developments.
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