Bitcoin
Will Bitcoin Halving Trigger a Big Rally?
The fourth halving of Bitcoin has passed, setting the stage for a new era.
In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrencies, few events deserve as much attention and potential impact as Bitcoinin (Bitcoin -1.24%) halved. On April 19, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, marking a pivotal moment in its journey.
While past performance does not always predict future results, a closer look at the halving reveals Bitcoin’s resilience and its potential for significant price appreciation.
What is half
Occurring approximately every four years, or 210,000 blocks added to the blockchain, halving reduces payments awarded to miners for resolving blocks, a process known as proof of work.
As this is the primary means for new Bitcoins to enter circulation, cutting miner rewards effectively reduces Bitcoin’s inflation rate. With the fourth halving now over, Bitcoin’s inflation rate is just 0.85%, making it less inflationary than gold. This process of reducing its inflation rate will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoin is expected to be extracted, and supports its robust monetary policy, which gives priority to scarcity and finitude.
The effects of half
Because halvings have reduced Bitcoin’s inflation rate, they effectively change the dynamics around its supply and demand. As a result, even if demand remains constant, the price must increase to compensate for the reduction in supply. Essentially, halvings exert an upward appreciation in the price of Bitcoin.
We can see this by analyzing Bitcoin’s past performance after the halving. In years when a halving occurs, Bitcoin usually returns around 125% on average. If this trend continues, then that would put its price at $100,000 if measured from the beginning of 2024.
Even better, as the halving effect solidifies, it is in the years following the halving that the best gains typically emerge. In those years, Bitcoin grew almost 400% on average. If this halving follows a similar pattern, then Bitcoin could see its price reach somewhere around $500,000 in 2025.
Further exploration of the current landscape
While the halving alone could introduce profound impacts to the price of Bitcoin, there are some other developments that could make this halving unlike any other. Further exploration of the current scenario should help you see that these potential price targets are not as sensational as they may seem.
Firstly, it is crucial to understand that although the halving changes Bitcoin production, this halving is unique because there was an existing supply shock. For the first time, there were fewer coins available on exchanges during this halving than the previous one. Since peaking in May 2020, the total number of coins available on exchanges has plummeted. Standing today at around 2.2 million, these are the lowest levels observed since 2018.
Then we have the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs. In January, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, effectively opening the doors for a new set of buyers to enter the Bitcoin market. For individuals unfamiliar with or without the technical knowledge required to navigate cryptocurrency exchanges, these ETFs provide a familiar, regulated path to gaining exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerages. Investors can now add Bitcoin exposure to their 401(k) plans or IRAs, effectively lowering the barriers to entry for a wider range of investors.
While it’s still early days, we can see how popular ETFs have been. To satisfy pent-up demand, by mid-February the 11 ETFs were collectively buying at a rate 10 times the daily Bitcoin production (around 900 Bitcoins). While the initial buying frenzy has cooled, if buying were to reach these levels again, it would mean that ETFs would be buying at 20 times the rate of daily production now that the halving has passed, putting even greater pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
Only time will tell how explosive this halving cycle will be for Bitcoin. But with a quick assessment of the implications that each halving brings, as well as other contributing factors such as an existing supply shock and the introduction of ETFs, there is reason for considerable optimism. Even with the price of Bitcoin hovering near $66,000 today as the effects of the halving materialize over the next few months, I’m still buying Bitcoin in anticipation of what’s to come.
Bitcoin
‘This is huge’ — Billionaire Mark Cuban issues ‘incredible’ Bitcoin and crypto prediction amid price slump
Bitcoin has surged again this year under former President Donald Trump Cryptocurrency boosts US presidential election in November with ‘revolutionary’ plan.
The price of bitcoin has surged to more than its all-time high in recent months, surpassing $70,000 per bitcoin and triggering a wave of mega-optimistic predictions about the price of bitcoinalthough it fell again this week to below $65,000 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.
Now, as Elon Musk suddenly breaks his silence on bitcoin and cryptocurrenciesBillionaire investor Mark Cuban called a California plan to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain an “incredible step forward” and “huge” for cryptocurrencies.
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Mark Cuban, famous Shark Tank investor and billionaire owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, has… [+] called a cryptocurrency update “amazing” amid bitcoin’s price slump.
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The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has digitized 42 million car titles using blockchain, it was reported by Reuters, through technology company Oxhead Alpha on the Avalanche blockchain and designed to detect fraud and facilitate the securities transfer process.
“This is an incredible development for crypto,” Cuban, best known as an investor on TV’s Shark Tank and owner of the Dallas Mavericks NBA team, posted on X, joking that U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler could sue the state as part of his hostility toward cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
“The reason this is huge for crypto is because people who hold the tokens will have an app with an Avalanche wallet,” Cuban said. “Tens of millions of Californians having and using a crypto wallet in the next five years, or however long it takes, normalizes the use of wallets and crypto.”
John Wu, president of Avalanche developer Ava Labs, told Reuters that California’s DMV is “creating a wallet that you can download on your phone.”
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Bitcoin’s price has rallied this year, triggering a wave of bullish bitcoin price predictions from… [+] people like billionaire Mark Cuban.
Forbes Digital Assets
Last month, Cuban predicted that if the US dollar falls as the global reserve currency, bitcoin could become “a global ‘safe haven’” and a “global currency.” potentially sending the price of bitcoin to a much higher level.
According to Cuban, bitcoin could become what its most ardent supporters “envision” — a means “of protecting our economies… This is already happening in countries facing hyperinflation.”
The price of bitcoin has skyrocketed over the past year, largely due to the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, leading a bitcoin attack on Wall Street.
Bitcoin
Large Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Added $5.4 Billion Worth of BTC in July, Data Shows
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Bitcoin
Peter Schiff criticizes Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin hype by U.Today
U.Today – Renowned economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff has criticized Michael Saylor’s recent hype about the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies as a strategic treasury asset by corporations.
Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate and president of MicroStrategy, recently shared his enthusiasm on X about the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.
Citing a comment made by Bitcoin investor Bill Miller in a recent interview with CNBC, Saylor tweeted: “We now have more companies coming forward and saying we will put Bitcoin on our balance sheet as a strategic treasury asset.”
However, not everyone shares Saylor’s enthusiasm. Schiff, a vocal Bitcoin critic and gold bull, was quick to respond with his usual skepticism. In a pointed tweet, Schiff argued: “Bitcoin is neither strategic nor appropriate as a treasury asset. Companies should not risk shareholder funds. They should pay dividends and let shareholders risk their own money.”
Bitcoin enthusiasts are not intimidated
However, Schiff’s criticism shouldn’t deter Bitcoin enthusiasts, who often take Schiff’s words with a pinch of salt. To put things in context, Michael Saylor began buying Bitcoin in 2020 as an inflation hedge and alternative to money. Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, is among the largest public holders of Bitcoin in the world. As of June 20, it held 226,331 BTC, purchased for around $8.33 billion at an average price of $36,798.
Over the weekend, Schiff was surprised when 87% of the more than 11,000 Bitcoin holders who responded to his X survey said they would not sell any of their Bitcoin even if the price dropped more than 99% to $120. They said not only would they not sell, but that they would continue to buy even when prices dropped.
Schiff unexpectedly revealed that “the main selling point for investors to buy Bitcoin is its excellent past performance record.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,067, having reached all-time highs of nearly $74,000 in mid-March.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Falls as ETF Flows Reverse, Mt. Gox Moves Billions
In a week of drastic fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated from its highs and is currently trading at US$66,250, down 0.9% in European trading.
This volatility comes on the heels of a significant surge above $70,000 earlier in the week, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s ambitious cryptocurrency plans announced in a Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump’s announcement to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president has temporarily sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy.
However, the excitement was short-lived as a series of events unfolded which caused investor sentiment to sour.
A significant sell-off of about 8% was triggered when the US Marshals Service moved $2 billion in Bitcoin for new wallets.
This move has reignited fears of a potential large-scale liquidation, compounded by lingering concerns over a possible Bitcoin liquidation from Mt. Gox. Early this morning, Mt. Gox administrator transferred US$2.2 billion value of your BTC assets in a new wallet.
Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin ETF spot market is showing signs of fluctuation, according to data from SoSo Value. On July 30, Bitcoin spot funds experienced their first net outflow in five days, totaling $18.3 million.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw outflows of $73.6 million, while the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $74.9 million in inflows. But outflows from other funds left the category in the red at the end of Tuesday’s trading session. The total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs currently stands at a substantial $58.5 billion.
In other crypto news, Ripple (XRP) is up 8.6% in the past 24 hours, hitting over 64 cents – its highest point since March 25, according to CoinGecko. data.
This rally comes amid a scheduled token unlock and growing optimism around a potential deal in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
The crypto community is closely watching the SEC’s actions, particularly its intention to amend its complaint against Binance regarding “Third-Party Cryptocurrency Securities,” which some interpret as a positive sign for Ripple.
On a market analysis noteSingapore-based cryptocurrency trading desk QCP Capital wrote that while election headlines continue to dominate, several crucial macroeconomic events loom on the horizon.
“Election headlines will continue to be a key focus, but several key macroeconomic events are also on the horizon. Key events starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, megacap tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Meta) throughout the week, and unemployment data on Friday,” QCP Capital wrote.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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