Blockchain
Bitcoin (BTC) price drops after strong jobs data
The U.S. job market remained strong in May, with the government reporting the addition of 272,000 jobs, well above estimates of just 185,000 and well above April’s 165,000 (revised from 175,000 previously reported) .
May’s unemployment rate was 4.0% compared to estimates of 3.9% and 3.9% in April.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) it fell sharply from a two-month high just under $72,000 in the minutes following the numbers. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $70,900, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.
Payroll data from this morning’s report shows that average hourly wages rose 0.4% in May compared to forecasts for 0.3% and 0.2% in April. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were 4.1% higher than estimates of 3.9% and 4.0% in April.
After rising in the early part of 2024, interest rates have been on a downward trend over the past five weeks as some recent U.S. economic data had pointed to a slowdown in both economic growth and inflation: the 10-dollar Treasury yield years prior to this morning the numbers were at 4.30% compared to the 2024 high of 4.71% in late April.
The drop in rates was a boon for risky assets, with major US stock market averages rising to record highs and the price of bitcoin rising from around $60,000 to a level close to its record high just above the $73,500.
The idea that major Western economies are about to fully enter a monetary easing cycle received further merit this week, when both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank cut their respective benchmark interest rates for the first time. time after several years. As for the US, the odds of a Fed rate cut have risen sharply of late, with investors ahead of this morning’s report having discounted the price around 55% chance of action on or before the bank’s September policy meeting.
With today’s strong numbers, much of this thinking is likely to be reversed at least in the short term. In addition to bitcoin’s rapid retreat, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.42% and U.S. stock index futures point to a lower open. Checking other indicators, the US dollar rose 0.5% and gold fell more than 2%.
Anna Wong, Bloomberg’s chief economist, did so an interesting contrary interpretation The data suggests that the rising unemployment rate is the most important indicator of the reality of the employment situation. “[The government] The model for estimating business births and deaths — which added 231,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in May — lags the reality of increasing factory closures and declining business formation. We believe the underlying pace of current job gains is likely to be less than 100,000 per month.”