Bitcoin Futures Term Structure Indicates Bullish Sentiment

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DEFINITION: The Futures Term Structure is a graphical representation of the price of futures contracts that expire at increasingly distant dates in the future. The most common state of the graph, an upward slope, indicates that a premium must be paid to purchase exposure, or delivery, of an asset in the future. Conversely, a downward slope indicates a discounted rate for delivery of an asset in the future. Trends and shifts within the graph can paint a picture of supply, demand, and liquidity for futures contracts that expire at different dates.

Bitcoin futures contracts are showing a progressive price increase across major exchanges. The Futures Term Structure chart illustrates how futures prices on Binance, Bybit, Deribit, Huobi, and OKX have been steadily increasing from August 2024 to June 2025. This consistent upward trend indicates a market expectation of higher Bitcoin prices in the coming year.

The chart starts at approximately $58,000 for August 2024 contracts, with gradual increases peaking at around $65,000 for June 2025 contracts. Notably, Deribit leads with the highest projected prices, suggesting strong market confidence in the platform’s future market. On the other hand, Huobi displays a slightly more conservative projection, reflecting different market sentiments across exchanges.

This upward trend in futures prices could imply sustained investor confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin following the April 2024 halving. Historically, halving events have led to significant price increases due to reduced supply. The current futures price aligns with this historical pattern, anticipating continued price appreciation.

Market participants should consider these projections when strategizing for the coming months, as the term structure of futures contracts offers insights into market expectations and potential price movements.

Bitcoin: Futures Term Structure: (Source: Glassnode)

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