Bitcoin
Bitcoin traders see Trump win as potential market boost – FT
Former president Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is expected to trigger a significant increase Bitcoins value, the Financial Times reported on July 5, citing several analysts.
According to the FT, the concept of “Trump trading” is gaining increasing traction among crypto traders due to the former president’s “perceived pro-crypto stance and policies.”
The recent performance of the leading cryptocurrency has been harmed by sales of miners and regulatory moves by US and German authorities. The expected refunds of the Mount Gox The bankruptcy case also contributed to market volatility, causing Bitcoin fall below $54,000 for the first time in months.
However, analysts stay optimistic that a Trump victory could lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin, potentially breaking another all-time high in August and reaching $100,000 by Election Day.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered slightly and is trading just above $56,000, based on data from CryptoSlate.
Trump: The Bitcoin Defender
According to the report, industry leaders are hopeful that the Trump administration, coupled with a strong Republican presence in Congress, will foster a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump has recently emerged as a notable supporter of the cryptocurrency industry. He recently hosted cryptocurrency mining executives at his Mar-a-Lago estate and has begun accepting campaign contributions in digital assets. The former president has made several positive statements about cryptocurrencies in recent weeks, including rumors that he is considering adopting Bitcoin as a country’s reserve asset.
Market analysts suggest that Trump pro-crypto stance could significantly increase Bitcoin’s appeal, potentially driving its price to unprecedented levels. Some market observers even predict that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by Election Day if Trump wins, the report said.
A potential Trump presidency also raises broader financial market considerations. Anticipated policies under Trump, such as stricter immigration controls, higher tariffs and tax cuts, are expected to increase the U.S. deficit, fueling inflation and pushing up Treasury yields.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick highlighted that Trump’s policies could lead to “fiscal dominance”, where significant government deficits and debt undermine the Fed’s ability to control inflation.
Kendrick believes such a scenario could benefit Bitcoin’s price, given its correlation with key U.S. Treasury markers. He added that a steeper curve and higher breakeven rates than real yields would likely push Bitcoin prices higher, positioning it as a hedge against declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.
Uncertain political scenario
According to the FT, if it becomes clear by the end of July that the President Joe Biden runs for re-election, the likelihood of a Trump victory will increase, potentially taking Bitcoin to new heights.
However, the report added that the “Trump flip” largely depends on whether Biden is Trump’s opponent in November. According to the RealClearPolitics Betting Average, Trump currently has a 55% chance of winning, while Biden has a 16.5% chance.
This suggests that as long as Biden remains in the race, Bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to feel bullish. On the other hand, if Biden withdraws and a new candidate enters the scene who is seen as having a competitive advantage against Trump, Bitcoin’s momentum could falter.
Betting markets such as Polymarket have seen substantial bets on Biden being knocked out of the race, with more than $11 million wagered on that outcome.
Bitcoin Market Data
At the time of printing, 22:52 UTC on July 5, 2024, Bitcoin is ranked #1 in market capitalization and the price is drop of 2.85% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market cap of 1.12 trillion dollars with a 24-hour trading volume of US$57.17 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›
Cryptocurrency Market Summary
At press time, 22:52 UTC on July 5, 2024, the total cryptocurrency market is valued at US$2.07 trillion with a 24-hour volume of US$ 135.31 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 53.99%. Learn more about the cryptocurrency market ›