Donald Trump guilty: crypto regulation in danger?

Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 counts in Manhattan court, putting his proposals on crypto regulation at risk.

However, the news did not cause any upheaval in the crypto market.

Trump’s memecoin

In particular, there is a token, whose ticker is precisely TRUMP, which belongs to the memecoin MAGA.

During the year 2024, the TRUMP token price had risen from $0.25 to an all-time high of over $15 on Wednesday. In other words, in just under five months, it gained 10,000%, with most of this increase occurring between mid-January and early March.

Since then, it has gone from $9.7 to $3.9, before returning to around $15.

Yesterday, upon the publication of the news of Donald Trump’s criminal conviction, it immediately experienced a rapid fall (-36% in two hours), but after briefly falling below 10 dollars, it then recorded a remarkable rebound which brought it back to its all-time highs. .

But subsequently it started to fall again, demonstrating that the often high volatility of memecoins is due solely to pure speculation.

Before the news, it had risen from $12.4 to over $15 in a matter of hours, only to drop below $10 in two hours, rebound to briefly record a new all-time high above $17, and then return at around $13.50.

In practice, it made a +8% in a little less than 24 hours but going through a +20% followed by a -36%, then a +88% and finally again a -24% .

In addition, the current price is perfectly consistent with that of May 29 before making a first jump which took it for the first time in its history above $15.

In other words, we can say that it has been moving sideways for three days, but with truly remarkable volatility.

November elections: Donald Trump focuses on regulating cryptos

It is clear that the data regarding the prices of the TRUMP memecoin is only useful for analyzing its volatility in the market or for speculating on it.

The real problem, that is to say the political problem, is quite different.

Trump remains the main challenger to current US President Joe Biden in the November presidential elections.

It’s not yet clear how yesterday’s conviction might affect his endorsement, but he already appears to be receiving statements of support from his bull supporters.

Concerning the world of crypto, Trump this year was very favorable to the development of the sector in the USA. The Biden administration, on the other hand, initially practically opposed it, only to make a real turnaround in recent weeks by supporting, for example, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF.

It is possible that in the current electoral campaign cryptocurrencies play a certain role, even if it is not central, but it seems that there is no candidate who, in words, is really against it.

In reality, the most pro-crypto candidate, even if it would be better to say pro-BitcoinEast Robert Kennedy Jr.but he doesn’t seem to have a concrete chance of winning.

That leaves only Biden and Trump, with the latter being very pro-crypto, at least in words, while the former appears to have changed his mind recently and, while not openly supportive, at least appears to have become concretely tolerant.

However, we must not forget that what politicians claim during the electoral campaign is not law and that once elected they often behave differently from the expectations they had aroused with propaganda aimed solely at winning the elections. elections.

Crypto regulation in the USA and the role of Donald Trump

The real issue for the crypto industry In the United States, there are regulations that will probably only be finally approved after the elections.

However, such regulations are not being developed by Biden’s Democratic government, but by Congress, which has a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Republicans appear generally supportive not only of the evolution and expansion of the crypto sector, but also of more favorable national regulations. Among Democrats, however, the majority seems to be opposed to it.

In fact, in the Senate, work has been underway for years on crypto regulation, but the Democratic majority has not allowed its approval. Instead, the House recently approved a first bill that could be rejected by the Senate.

Trump in the election campaign promised that he would be a businessman for favorable crypto regulations.

Crypto and the USA

The United States of America remains the most innovative country in the world, if only because the world’s largest innovative companies are based there.

As for cryptocurrencies, the reference American company is Coinbase, which has also been listed on Nasdaq since 2021, but MicroStrategy is also an American company.

However, at the same time, the biggest failure ever for a crypto exchange was that of the American FTX, even though it was based in the Bahamas.

The United States, especially under the first Trump administration, had become the cornerstone of the crypto sector globally, but under the Biden administration, new foreign realities emerged, primarily Dubai.

Despite this, US markets remain absolutely dominant, even in the crypto sector, as evidenced by the incredible boom generated by the mere arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs on American stock exchanges.

While many other jurisdictions, primarily the European Union, have established a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, the United States still lags behind in this regard, making things difficult for crypto companies local ones like Coinbase.

In such turmoil, the SEC has also gotten involved, challenging various crypto entities in court, usually only to lose.

In light of this, it seems likely that not only in the event of a Trump victory will new crypto regulations be approved in the United States, but also that in the event of a Biden victory a similar outcome could be achieved.

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