Ethereum
Ethereum ETF Approval Will Lead to $11 Million Polymarket Dispute – Here’s Why – DL News
- Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcome of events.
- Approval of Ethereum ETF could lead to $11 million dispute on Polymarket.
- The dispute lies in the unclear resolution terms, particularly around the question of which filings must be approved for the market to respond “Yes.”
A decision from the Securities and Exchanges Commission regarding Ethereum spot ETFs is expected at 9:30 p.m. London time on Thursday.
Ahead of this decision, users of Polymarket, a prediction platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of events, began digging into the details of what “endorsement” actually means.
Before exchange-traded funds can officially begin trading, issuers must obtain approval from both 19b-4 Filings And S-1 filings.
Thursday’s decision only concerns filing 19b-4.
It could be months before S-1 filings are approved and negotiations begin.
This nuance guides Polymarket punters get ready for the biggest bet market conflict since the $2.2 million deal “Will the missing Titan submarine be found by June 23” June from last year.
The “Ethereum ETF approved by May 31” market now has $10.8 million in play, up about $3 million in the past 24 hours, with bettors giving the approval a 65% chance of happening.
The market will answer “Yes” if a spot Ethereum ETF receives SEC approval before the May 31 deadline, otherwise it will answer “No.”
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At first glance, bettors’ allegiance seems to depend on where they have placed their money.
The biggest bettor of all time on Polymarket, JustKenwhich owns about 121,000 “no” stocks, said he believes it’s actually pretty clear that both 19b-4 and S-1 are required for an ETF to be considered approved.
On the other hand, 0xsmolbear76who owns about 261,000 “Yes” shares, said he believes any credible source saying the ETF has received approval should lead the market to “Yes.”
Polymarket has made no official statement on the market amid confusion among punters.
Earlier in the year, Polymarket raised $70 million big names like billionaire Peter Thiel and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
The platform saw 1,773 active wallets generate $2.8 million in total volume on Wednesday.
The largest market is 2024 US election marketwho received more than $132 million in bets, giving former President Donald Trump a 55% chance of winning.
Ryan Celaj is a data correspondent at DL News. Do you have any advice? Send him an email to ryan@dlnews.com.