Ethereum
Here’s What ETH Implied Volatility Tells Us — TradingView News
The cryptocurrency market has recently shown distinct divergences in the behavior of its two main assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Bitcoin appears to be entering a phase of relative stability, Ethereum’s journey paints a mixed picture of continued uncertainty, particularly in its options market.
This divergence is highlighted by the sustained high levels of implied volatility associated with Ethereum options, signaling a cautious outlook on future price action from investors.
Ethereum’s Persistent Volatility: A Comparative Analysis
Implied volatility (IV) is a crucial indicator in the options market, providing insight into expected fluctuations in an asset’s price over a specific time period. It reflects market temperature, assessing the intensity of potential price movements anticipated by traders.
Recent analysis suggests that while Bitcoin’s implied volatility has significantly stabilized after the halving, Ethereum’s has not followed suit. While Bitcoin’s IV has fallen to its lowest level in several months, indicating a calm market, Ethereum’s IV remains stubbornly high.
Unlike the calming waves of the Bitcoin market, Ethereum is struggling with increased volatility. According to data from the Bitfinex Alpha Report, Bitcoin’s volatility index has declined sharply from 72% at the time of its last halving event to around 55%.
NewsBTC
In contrast, Ethereum saw a more modest reduction in its volatility index, dropping from 76% to 65% over the same period. This continued volatility in the Ethereum market is primarily fueled by uncertainties surrounding upcoming significant regulatory decisions and broader market implications.
NewsBTC
The Ethereum market is particularly nervous in anticipation of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) impending decision on two Ethereum spot ETFs, scheduled for late May 2024.
This upcoming regulatory step is considered a critical event that could either catalyze a major market move or exacerbate current volatility.
The Bitfinex Alpha report highlights regulatory uncertainty as one of the main factors behind Ethereum’s volatility risk premium (VRP) falling less significantly compared to Bitcoin.
ETH and BTC Show Signs of Recovery Amid Volatility
Ethereum and Bitcoin have shown signs of recovery over the past week in terms of trading performance. Bitcoin saw an increase of 4.1%, while Ethereum reported a more modest gain of 2.4%.
However, the last 24 hours have been less favorable for Ethereum, with a slight decline of 0.7%, highlighting the current volatility and caution among investors.
Additionally, Ethereum’s network dynamics also reflect moderate activity with a marked decrease in the ETH consumption rate attributed to reduced transaction fees.
This technical aspect further complements a cautious narrative of the Ethereum market, poised to undergo potentially significant changes based on external regulatory actions.
Despite all this, analysts like Ashcrypto suggest that the current volatility could pave the way for a strong rebound in the third quarter of the year. Building on historical trends, speculative predictions for Ethereum could reach the $4,000 mark, provided market conditions align favorably.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Ethereum
Bits + Bips with Nic Carter: Trump’s Promises, Kamala’s Change, and ETH’s ‘Narrative Problem’
Nic Carter joins the show to talk about his journey to becoming a fighter, Trump’s promises, Lummis’ Bitcoin Reserve bill, the launch of ETH ETFs, and more.
Posted on July 31, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket casts, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann dive with Nic Carter into Trump’s game-changing promises to the crypto community, Kamala Harris’ unexpected policy changes, and Solana’s explosive rise.
Additionally, Nic reveals his unexpected journey into amateur fighting and addresses the pressing issues surrounding Ethereum ETFs and the ecosystem he’s been funding the most lately.
Highlights of the show:
- Why Alex Thinks the Conference Was One of the Most Incredible Moments in Crypto History
- Nic’s reaction to Trump’s mention of deconstructing “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” a term coined by Nic himself
- Nic’s Karate Fight and His Journey to Becoming an Amateur Fighter
- Why Nic Thinks There’s No Chance Lummis’ Bill Proposing the U.S. Government Establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Will Pass
- The Importance of Trump’s Bitcoin Nashville Promises
- How Tether compares to the Eurodollar system
- What are the potential impacts of the Fed’s language at its next meeting?
- The implications of Harris’ campaign to mend ties with cryptocurrency companies
- How the ETH ETF Launch Happened and Why Nic Says Ethereum Has a “Narrative Problem”
- How Solana Has Been Heartbreaking Lately and Joe’s Response to Some of the Criticism
- How Nic, as a VC, sees the ETH vs. SOL debate and how founders are increasingly choosing Solana
Hosts:
Guest
- Nic CarterGeneral Partner at Castle Island Ventures
Connections
Bitcoin Conference:
- Trump’s speech:
- Lummis Proposal:
- Democrats/Harris looking for a “reset”
- Letter From Democratic politicians to DNC chair to include crypto in Democratic party platform:
ETH ETF Launch:
Solana rocks:
Ethereum
Bitcoin, Ethereum in the red as markets crash on volatility
Bitcoin And Ethereumalong with the rest of the top 10 crypto assets by market cap, look gloomy Thursday morning.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin Price is still below $65,000 and 2.2% lower than it was at this time yesterday, according to CoinGecko data. Things are worse for the Ethereum Priceor 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago at $3,185.22. The drop in ETH price is in line with that of Lido Staked Ethereum (stETH), a liquid Ethereum staking token.
Over the past day, falling prices led to the liquidation of $225 million worth of derivative contracts, according to Coin glass. And about half of them, or about $100 million, have been liquidated in the last 12 hours.
When a trader is liquidated, it means that their market position has been forcibly closed by an exchange or broker due to a margin call or insufficient collateral. Margin is especially relevant when it comes to leveraged positions, which allow traders to control a multiple of their deposit, such as opening a $10,000 position with only $1,000 in their account.
Now that Bitcoin has posted three consecutive days of losses, it is possible that the world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency could sink even further, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said in a note shared with Decrypt.
“For three consecutive days, Bitcoin has closed negative, with one-way trades showing limited resistance from the bulls. Ethereum had a slightly positive Monday with strong resistance from the bears who have gained over the past two days,” he wrote. “This momentum could push BTC down towards the $62,500 resistance or even the $58,000 territories.”
Looking ahead, Fournier said BRN’s strategy will be to “reduce exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum and find a better entry point after the dip.”
All this despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on interest rates yesterday were generally perceived as being accommodating and indicates that the FOMC cut rates in September.
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm, noted that the rally in stocks, which left the S&P 500 starting the day 1.6% higher than its Wednesday close, was not felt in cryptocurrency markets.
“Cryptocurrencies saw a massive selloff overnight and this morning,” the firm wrote in a trading note. “The market remains on edge, with traders paying close attention to daily ETH ETF outflows and further supply pressures from Mt Gox and the US government.”
Meanwhile, the rest of the major pieces are a mixed bag.
Solana (SOL) has dropped 7.2% since yesterday to $169.13. Things are even worse for its most popular meme coins. In the last 24 hours, popular meme coins Dogwifhat (WIF) have dropped 12% and BONK (BONK) has dropped 9%, according to data from CoinGecko.
Their dog-themed competitor and Ethereum OG Dogecoin (DOGE), the only meme coin in Coingecko’s top 10, has dropped nearly 4% since yesterday and is currently trading at $0.1205.
XRP (XRP) fell to $0.608, down 7% from the same time yesterday.
Binance’s BNB Coin (BNB) has kept pace with BTC and is currently trading at $571, down 2.4% since the same time yesterday. Toncoin (TON), the native token of The Open Network, has only fallen 0.4% over the past day.
There remain the stablecoins USDC (USDC) and Tether (USDT), both of which are stable because they maintain their 1:1 peg with the US dollar.
Ethereum
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady, Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Fall
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell Jerome Hayden “Jay” Powell is an American lawyer and investment banker who has served as the 16th Chairman of the Federal Reserve since 2018. Finance recently hinted at a potential rate cut in September, sparking a sharp rise in the stock market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 3.3%, and the S&P 500 rose 2%. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.3% to $66,088 and Ethereum (ETH) The global cryptocurrency market fell by 1.11% to $3,313. Over the past 24 hours, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization also decreased by 0.71% to $2.39 trillion.
Market analysts believe that the decline in cryptocurrency prices is a short-term decline. Despite a bear market, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are showing bullish signals. Bitcoin is still struggling to break the $70,000 mark, but its performance in August, ahead of potential rate cuts, will be closely watched.
Federal Reserve remains stable
On July 31, the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by deciding to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. The move met Wall Street expectations and marked the eighth consecutive meeting without a rate change.
Towards a market rebound?
According to SantimentThe FOMC’s decision to maintain current interest rates led to an initial decline in cryptocurrency prices. Traders were hoping for a rate cut, which hasn’t happened since March 2020. A future rate cut could signal bullish trends for stocks and cryptocurrencies, potentially boosting markets for the remainder of 2024. Despite the initial sell-off, markets are likely to stabilize unless another major event impacts the cryptocurrency sector.
Bullish outlook, bearish sentiment
The aggressive buildup of rate hikes and rising negative investor sentiment could pave the way for a substantial market rally. Despite the anticipation surrounding the FOMC meeting, the impact on cryptocurrencies was limited as the rate pause had already been priced in.
Previous Fed decisions have had minimal impact on Bitcoin prices.
A look into the past & the future
Historically, FOMC actions affect all asset classes. In 2020 and 2021, Bitcoin and other altcoins soared when the Fed cut rates to zero, only to reverse course in 2022 when rates began to rise. Investors have since moved trillions of dollars into lower-risk assets, with money market funds amassing over $6.1 trillion, enjoying an average return of 5%.
Key indicators to monitor
Bitcoin’s immediate resistance is noted at $66,852, with support at $65,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling oversold conditions, suggesting further declines are possible if the price falls below $65,900.
Investors are now closely watching the FOMC meeting for clues about inflation and economic growth, which could influence Bitcoin’s next move. The interplay between the Federal Reserve’s decisions and market reactions will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets.
Read also : Why is Bitcoin price down today? Is a major correction imminent?
The Fed’s decision has caused a stir in the market. Will this impact your investment strategy?
Ethereum
Tron’s Justin Sun Hints Ethereum Selloff Could Happen Due to ETF Outflows
Justin Sun, the founder of Tron DAO, has hinted at a major Ethereum (ETH) selloff following a series of transactions that have garnered considerable attention. Sun has unlocked a significant portion of his ETH stash. Additionally, he has transferred some of this ETH to Poloniex, a major cryptocurrency exchange.
Justin Sun hints at massive Ethereum selloff
Observers were particularly intrigued by the movement of 1,768 ETH (worth about $5.9 million) unstaked by Lido, according to data from Peck Shield Alert. Additionally, the subsequent transfer of 810 ETH, valued at about $2.7 million, to Poloniex cryptocurrency exchange
raised speculation about a massive Ethereum selloff.
The Ethereum price crash in early July, which saw a 10% drop, further fueled speculation in the market. This slowdown contributed to an 8% drop in the global cryptocurrency market capitalization. Moreover, one of the most notable impacts was a potential $66 million loss for Justin Sun at the time.
According to a report by Spot On Chain, Sun’s vast network Ethereum The holdings were severely impacted by the market downturn on July 5. Between February and June 2024, Sun accumulated a substantial amount of Ether, totaling 361,137 ETH across three separate wallets.
His acquisitions included 169,604 ETH in February at an average price of $2,870, 176,117 ETH in April at $3,177, and 15,416 ETH in June at $3,474. Just one day before the significant price drop, Sun reportedly made a profit of $58 million from these holdings.
However, the market crash on July 5th turned those gains into a staggering $66 million loss. At the height of the crisis, the price of Ethereum fell below $2,800. Although it has since rebounded above $3,300 following the launch of new ETFs, this event triggered a “sell the news” reaction among investors.
Moreover, despite the rebound, the price of ETH has remained below the average value of Sun’s third acquisition. Therefore, the latest concerns about Ethereum selling are not unfounded. This could be a loss mitigation measure, as Sun usually holds his ETH tightly.
Read also : 21Shares Uses Chainlink to Verify Ethereum ETF Reserves
ETH ETF Fund Outflows
Adding to the intrigue, flows from Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been consistently negative. On Monday, July 29, Ethereum Spot ETFs saw outflows totaling $98.3 million. Additionally, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) alone accounted for $210 million in outflows, accelerating the outflow streak.
However, notable inflows were seen at Blackrock, Fidelity, and Bitwise, recording $58.2 million, $24.8 million, and $10.4 million, respectively. Despite these mixed signals, the price of Ethereum has remained relatively stable. The price of Ether is currently fluctuating between $3,300 and $3,400.
Ethereum Liquidation Chart, Source: Coinglass
At the time of going to press, the ETH Price fell 1.04% to $3,325.16 on Tuesday, July 30 with a market cap of $401 billion. Additionally, a broader sell-off in Ethereum was seen in the market with long liquidations of $33.58 million, according to Coin glassMeanwhile, shorts liquidated about $6.87 million of positions.
Read also : Ethereum Client Releases Important Stability Patch Ahead of Pectra Upgrade
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