News
Traders hope Trump’s cryptocurrency trading could lift bitcoin’s falling price
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Hello and welcome to the FT Cryptofinance newsletter. This week we take a look at bitcoin’s outlook for the second half of the year.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency traders and analysts are hoping that a Donald Trump victory in November could bring the price of bitcoin out of its recent slumber.
The coin, a decent proxy for all crypto assets, peaked in mid-March and has struggled to make any headway since April’s so-called halving event, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Since then, it has fallen about 15 percent, and on Friday it fell below $54,000 to its lowest point since February. That has defied many predictions that bitcoin would start to recover after the halving.
Analysts have speculated that the lackluster performance is due to the number of potential sell-offs weighing on the market: $9 billion in bitcoin and bitcoin cash sales from the defunct Japanese exchange Mt Gox; potential bitcoin sell-offs by miners; and the signal sent over the past two weeks by authorities in the United States and Germany, who have transferred portions of criminal seizures to cryptocurrency exchanges.
“Both authorities hold more than $15 billion worth of bitcoin, which represents enough potential selling pressure to make bitcoin holders nervous in the short term,” said analysts at Ryze Labs, a cryptocurrency venture capital firm.
Traders have also noted the impact of bitcoin trading, in which hedge funds use borrowed money to bet on the convergence of the price of bitcoin futures and spot bitcoin ETFs, in dampening volatility.
As the market searches for the next catalyst, talk of a “Trump trade” is spreading, a potential rally in bitcoin in the second half of the year on the prospect of a victory for the former president in November. This belief has only grown since last week’s presidential debate.
The optimism is driven by two perceptions: that Trump is the most crypto-friendly candidate, and that his policies will make assets like Bitcoin more attractive to the rest of the world.
It has already shown itself more open to courting the industry by hosting cryptocurrencies mining executives at Mar-a-Lago, accepting cryptocurrency contributions and generally spreading positive messages.
Industry executives are hoping that the Trump White House and strong Republican presence in Congress will make Washington more willing to (finally) pass clear and favorable regulations on cryptocurrencies.
“Cryptocurrency companies are also set to benefit, especially with Trump’s energy policy proposals, which could allow the use of other energy sources for bitcoin mining,” said Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Julius Baer.[President Joe] “Biden’s previous tax proposals on cryptocurrency miners, such as a 30% tax, are unlikely to be implemented under a Trump administration,” he added.
The second perception is a question that is starting to creep into traditional finance as well: What will Trump 2.0 mean for financial markets more broadly?
Currently, the market expectation is that tougher immigration policies, higher tariffs on foreign goods, and tax cuts would increase the U.S. deficit and lead to higher inflation and higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, argues that Trump’s policies could create “fiscal dominance,” when deficits and government debt become so large that the central bank’s main weapon, interest rate changes, have only a limited impact.
This would impact the price of bitcoin, he said, because the cryptocurrency tends to have a reasonable correlation with some crucial U.S. Treasury indicators, such as the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries and breakeven rates.
A steeper curve and higher breakeven rates relative to real yields should push the price of bitcoin higher, he argues, because the coin is a good hedge against declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.
Trump’s trade is based in part on Biden being his opponent in November. RealClearPolitics Betting Average, a collection of prediction sites, has Trump at 55 percent and Biden’s odds at just 16.5 percent, after plummeting last week.
This suggests that if Biden stays in the race, bitcoin bulls will be energized. If he exits and the new candidate is seen as having a chance against Trump, bitcoin could remain in the doldrums.
But then again, it might not matter. Theories about bitcoin, from an inflation hedge to an alternative to the financial system, tend to disintegrate upon contact with reality.
But that misses the point. As Ben Hunt, chief investment officer of asset manager Second Foundation, eloquently put it, he wrote on his Epsilon Theory blog this week, “behavior changes ONLY when we believe everyone else believes the information.” If enough people think Trump will win, the cryptocurrency market will move.
The most likely outcome, Kendrick says, is that by late July it becomes clear that Biden will run, the likelihood of Trump winning increases further, and bitcoin soars. “A new all-time high [high] August is likely, then $100,000 by Election Day in the United States.”
All markets need a narrative to sustain their momentum. But bitcoin, which has no cash flow, needs it more than most. As the oversold is cleared from the market, expect this to play out over the summer.
What do you think? Email me at philip.stafford@ft.com
Highlights of the week
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The now defunct California bank Silvergate I’ll pay $63 million to resolve civil claims brought by federal and state regulators in connection with the bank’s collapse following the massive fraud that brought down cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
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The United States Marshals Service has chosen Coinbase for custody cryptocurrencies it seizes as part of the U.S. government’s criminal investigation. The agency has previously held assets belonging to Silk Road and Mt Gox. The five-year deal is worth $32.5 million.
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Bitcoin mining firm Genesis Digital Assets, in which the defunct Alameda Research trading group invested $1.15 billion, is considering a U.S. IPO, Bloomberg reported.
Data Mining: On the Rise
Here’s another indicator of the slowdown in crypto markets. Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges had a solid first half, with total aggregate spot volumes up $10.6 trillion from $4.32 trillion in the second half of last year, according to CCData. March was a record, it added. The main driver was the arrival of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. However, the chart also shows how the post-halving lull has affected volumes.
Cryptofinance is edited by Laurence Fletcher. To view previous editions of the newsletter click Here.
Your comments are welcome.
News
Cryptocurrency Price August 1: Bitcoin Dips Below $65K; Solana, XRP Down Up To 8%
Major cryptocurrencies fell in Thursday trading following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged. Overnight, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive time, as expected, while also signaling the possibility of a rate cut at its next meeting in September. The unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee reflects a continued wait-and-see approach as it monitors inflation trends.
CoinSwitch Markets Desk said: “Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000 after the US Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. However, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September, the outlook for a Bitcoin rally by the end of the year has strengthened.”
Meanwhile, CoinDCX research team said: “The crypto market has plunged after the Fed decision. Tomorrow’s US unemployment rate announcement is expected to induce more volatility, with the ‘actual’ figure coming in higher than the ‘expected’ one, which is positive for cryptocurrencies.”
At 12:21 pm IST, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.2% at $64,285, while Ethereum was down nearly 4.5% at $3,313. Meanwhile, the global market cryptocurrency The market capitalization fell 3.6% to around $2.3 trillion in the last 24 hours.
“Bitcoin needs to clear its 200-day EMA at $64,510 to consolidate further. Otherwise, a retest of $62,000 could be in the cards,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.
Altcoins and meme coins, such as BNB (3%), Solana (8%), XRP (5.7%), Dogecoin (5%), Cardano (4.6%), Avalanche (4.3%), Shiba Inu (3.8%), Polkadot (3.4%), and Chainlink (4%) also saw declines.
The volume of all stablecoins is now $71.64 billion, which is 92.19% of the total cryptocurrency market volume in 24 hours, according to data available on CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 54.99%. BTC volume in the last 24 hours increased by 23.3% to $35.7 billion.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views provided by experts are personal. They do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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News
Altcoins WIF, BONK, RUNE, JUP Down 10% While Bitcoin Drops 4%
Altcoins dogwifhat, Bonk, THORChain, and Jupiter have suffered losses of more than 10%, while Bitcoin is down 4% in the last 24 hours.
After a period of relative calm yesterday, July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) price action has seen a drastic change as the cryptocurrency dropped by more than $3,500, bringing its value to $63,300. At the same time, altcoins mirrored this trend, with the total value of liquidated positions rising to nearly $225 million over the course of the day.
Initially, the week started on a positive note for Bitcoin, which reached its highest point since early June, hitting $70,000. However, this peak was short-lived, as it was quickly rejected, leading to a substantial decline, with Bitcoin falling below $65,500.
The cryptocurrency managed to regain some stability, trading comfortably at around $66,800. However, following a Press conference According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the value of Bitcoin has fallen again to $64,300, down more than 3% in 24 hours.
BTC Price Chart 24 Hours | Source: crypto.news
The recession coincided with a relationship from the New York Times stating that Iran had called for retaliatory measures against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, increasing the risk of further conflict in the region.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rates in place, offering little information on a planned September rate cut. Powell also hinted that while no concrete decisions have been made on the September adjustment, there is growing consensus that a rate cut is likely.
Amid Bitcoin’s decline, altcoins have suffered even more significant losses. For example, dogwifhat (Wife) saw a 12.4% drop and (DISGUST) has suffered a 10% drop. Other altcoins such as THORChain (RUNE) also fell by 10%, while Jupiter (JUPITER) and the Ethereum naming service (ENS) decreased by 8% and 9% respectively.
Among the largest-cap cryptocurrencies, the biggest losers are Solana (SOL) with a decrease of 8%, (Exchange rate risk) down 6%, Cardano (ADA) down 4%, and both Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recording a decrease of 4.4%.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that approximately 67,000 traders have been negatively impacted by this increased volatility. BTC positions have seen $61.85 million in liquidations, while ETH positions have faced $61 million. In total, the value of liquidated positions stands at $225.4 million at the time of writing.
News
Riot Platforms Sees 52% Drop in Bitcoin Production in Q2
Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms has released its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a decline in cryptocurrency mined due to the recent halving.
Colorado-based Bitcoin (BTC) mining company Riot platforms revealed its second quarter financial results, highlighting a significant reduction in mined cryptocurrencies attributed to the recent halving event that took place in early April.
The company reported total revenue of $70 million for the quarter ended July 31, a decline of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Riot Platforms attributed the revenue decline primarily to a $9.7 million decrease in engineering revenue, which was partially mitigated by a $6 million increase in Bitcoin extraction income.
During the quarter, the company mined 844 BTC, representing a decline of over 50% from Q2 2023, citing the halving event and increasing network difficulty as major factors behind the decline. Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million, or $0.32 per share, missing Zacks Research forecast a loss of $0.16 per share.
Halving increases competitive pressure
The Colorado-based firm said the average cost of mining one BTC in the second quarter, including energy credits, rose to $25,327, a remarkable 341% increase from $5,734 per BTC in the same quarter of 2023. Despite this significant increase in production costs, the firm remains optimistic about maintaining competitiveness through recent deals.
For example, following the Recent acquisition Cryptocurrency firm Block Mining, Riot has increased its distributed hash rate forecast from 31 EH/s to 36 EH/s by the end of 2024, while also increasing its 2025 forecast from 40 EH/s to 56 EH/s.
Riot Platforms Hashrate Growth Projections by 2027 | Source: Riot Platforms
Commenting on the company’s financials, Riot CEO Jason Les said that despite the halving, the mining company still managed to achieve “significant operational growth and execution of our long-term strategy.”
“Despite this reduction in production available to all Bitcoin miners, Riot reported $70 million in revenue for the quarter and maintained strong gross margins in our core Bitcoin mining business.”
Jason Les
Following its Q2 financial report, Riot Platforms shares fell 1.74% to $10.19, according to Google Finance data. Meanwhile, the American miner continues to chase Canadian rival Bitfarms, recently acquiring an additional 10.2 million BITF shares, increasing its stake in Bitfarms to 15.9%.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Riot was the first announced a $950 million takeover bid for Bitfarms in late May, arguing that Bitfarms’ founders were not acting in the best interests of all shareholders. They said their proposal was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive engagement.
In response, Bitfarms She said that Riot’s offer “significantly understates” its growth prospects. Bitfarms subsequently implemented a shareholder rights plan, also known as a “poison pill,” to protect its strategic review process from hostile takeover attempts.
News
Aave Price Increases Following Whales Accumulation and V3.1 Launch
Decentralized finance protocol Aave is seeing a significant spike in whale activity as the market looks to recover from the recent crash that pushed most altcoins into key support areas earlier this week.
July 31, Lookonchain shared details indicating that the whales had aggressively accumulated Aave (AAVE) over the past two days. According to the data, whales have withdrawn over 58,848 AAVE worth $6.47 million from exchanges during this period.
In one instance, whale address 0x9af4 withdrew 11,185 AAVE worth $1.23 million from Binance. Meanwhile, another address moved 21,619 AAVE worth over $2.38 million from the exchange and deposited the tokens into Aave.
These withdrawals follow a previous transfer of 26,044 AAVE from whale address 0xd7c5, amounting to over $2.83 million withdrawn from Binance.
AAVE price has surged over 7% in the past 24 hours amid buy-side pressure from these whales. The DeFi token is currently trading around $111 after jumping over 18% in the past week.
Recently, the price of AAVE increased by over 8% after Aave founder Marc Zeller announced a proposed fee change aimed at adopting a buyback program for AAVE tokens.
Aave v3.1 is available
The total value locked in the Aave protocol currently stands at around $22 billion. According to DeFiLlamaApproximately $19.9 billion is on Aave V3, while the V2 chain still holds approximately $1.9 billion in TVL and V1 approximately $14.6 million.
Aave Labs announced Previously, Aave V3.1 was made available on all networks with active Aave V3 instances.
V3.1 features improvements that are intended to improve the overall security of the DeFi protocol. The Aave DAO governance has approved the v3.1 improvements, which also include operational efficiency and usability for the network.
Meanwhile, Aave Labs recently outlined a ambitious roadmap for the projectwith a 2030 vision for Aave V4, among other developments.
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