Blockchain
Trump widens lead with Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) after courting cryptocurrency vote
This week in prediction markets:
Taking a strong pro-crypto stance may have strengthened Donald Trump’s lead over incumbent President Joe Biden, at least if you go by market forecasts.
Last week, Trump has he promised to commute the sentence by Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht – a figure near and dear to many in the crypto community – and he promised to make the United States leader in the digital assets sector. This is a decidedly more thoughtful position than the one taken by the Biden administration.
During the same period, Biden “yes” shares on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular among retail traders that settles dollar trades, fell from 46 cents to 44 cents. Each share pays $1 if Biden is re-elected, and nothing if he loses. In fact, the 44 cent price means the market sees a 44% chance he will be re-elected.
Cryptocurrency-based Polymarket, which technically bans U.S. residents from using its service, showed a similar change in odds.
Polls have shown neither such a dramatic gap between the two candidates nor such a dramatic change in the last week. According to the data, Trump’s lead in the polls increased by just 80 basis points, to 1.7%. FiveThirtyEight averages. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they can be a more reliable indicator of sentiment and a forecasting tool because, unlike people answering questions on the phone, bettors have a stake in the game.
Markets have also become interested in North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as a possible running mate for Trump.
On the PolymarketBurgum shares rise three percentage points, currently trading at 18%, or 18 cents, while on PredictItthey are slightly decreasing, trading at 15 cents.
On both platforms, Burgum trails Tim Scott, who holds a 23% lead on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of established Republicans like Marco Rubio, at 10% on Polymarket, or Nikki Haley, at 4%.
An arcane contract termination controversy has arisen on Polymarket over whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will bless ether ETFs. Bettors clash over whether “approval” means just Forms 19b-4 or also S-1 filings.
But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it’s not over until it’s over.
Although the SEC has approved Forms 19b-4 for ETFs, it still must approve S-1 filings before trading can begin, James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, he told CoinDesk.
“ETFs are not considered ‘approved’ until both the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A, or N-2) and 19b-4 filing have been signed by the SEC,” Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, published on X (formerly Twitter).
Despite these bureaucratic quibbles, the Polymarket contract, which received more than $13 million in bets, still resulted in a “yes,” meaning the “oracle” or arbiter of the contract decided the matter was settled.
And this led to making money in the long run.
A user who takes the handle Paperlisswhich he bought near the bottom of the market at 7 cents, turned just over $300 into $4,358 for a return of 1,329%.
Meanwhile, the largest holder of the “Yes” shares in the contract, I will not deceive myselfhe saw a 61% return, taking his bet from just over $10,000 to a value of $16,902 at the close of the contract.