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Are cryptocurrencies on the verge of a bull or bear market? Use Consensus 2024 as a barometer
The question on everyone’s mind at Consensus 2024 seems to be: How on earth should we describe current market sentiment? Are we in a bull market? A bear market? On the cusp of another bull market? Teetering on the brink of collapse again?
Note: The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates. This is an excerpt from The Node newsletter, a daily roundup of the most crucial crypto news on CoinDesk and beyond. You can sign up to get the full service newsletter here.
Since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year, bitcoin has regained and even surpassed the all-time high set during the heady bull market days of 2021. But for weeks and weeks and weeks it seems that, at best hypothesis, the largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways.
Overall, there have been many positive developments for cryptocurrencies in recent months. The European Union, after approving MiCA last year, is starting to see traction in its domestic crypto market while other global hubs such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Caribbean countries are also pursuing significant legislation
And, perhaps more importantly, it finally appears that the regulatory gridlock in the United States is starting to ease. The House recently passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) last week, marking the furthest a cryptocurrency-specific bill has ever come legislatively. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has made a U-turn on Ether ETFs.
It would seem that the conditions for a breakout are in place, but so far it is unclear exactly what the future of cryptocurrencies will be.
“Call me cautiously optimistic,” Adam Roberts of institutional portfolio MPC told CoinDesk in a showroom interview. “The approval of the ETH ETF is a sign of change, but it is not enough to recatalyze things.”
“Ask me in two days and I’ll have a better answer,” Roberts added. “Based on how fast the coffee went, that’s a good indicator.”
It was a point echoed by Roberts’ colleague Steve Horvath, who joked about using Consensus 2024 as a barometer of market sentiment.
“Based on the crowd: no bear, no bull,” Horvath said.
Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Nodle, is a little more optimistic about recent regulatory changes, noting that the SEC’s heavy-handed approach to cryptocurrency oversight has driven many companies offshore and made it difficult to run a business at a national level.
If all goes well, “this alone should create a new bull market as the US remains the largest cryptocurrency market in the world,” Benoliel said.
Amanda Wick, founder and CEO of the Association for Women in Crypto and a former Justice Department prosecutor, is similarly optimistic this year, after looking around the conference room and seeing signs of a maturing industry.
“The consensus this year versus last year has seemed night and day,” Wick said. “The maturation has been evident in the conversations, speakers, sponsors, and intentional inclusion of groups that are working to make the industry more diverse,” he added, highlighting efforts made this year to include diversity groups such as LGBTQ+ community advocates at Web Q. “The industry’s best chance of sustaining a bull run comes through maturation and greater integrity, and Consensus this year clearly reflects positive movement in that direction.” she concluded.
Indeed, it may not be exactly clear whether cryptocurrencies are on the verge of another bull or bear market, but with any luck it has learned to avoid what brought it down last time.