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Are cryptocurrencies on the verge of a bull or bear market? Use Consensus 2024 as a barometer
The question on everyone’s mind at Consensus 2024 seems to be: How on earth should we describe current market sentiment? Are we in a bull market? A bear market? On the cusp of another bull market? Teetering on the brink of collapse again?
Note: The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates. This is an excerpt from The Node newsletter, a daily roundup of the most crucial crypto news on CoinDesk and beyond. You can sign up to get the full service newsletter here.
Since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year, bitcoin has regained and even surpassed the all-time high set during the heady bull market days of 2021. But for weeks and weeks and weeks it seems that, at best hypothesis, the largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways.
Overall, there have been many positive developments for cryptocurrencies in recent months. The European Union, after approving MiCA last year, is starting to see traction in its domestic crypto market while other global hubs such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Caribbean countries are also pursuing significant legislation
And, perhaps more importantly, it finally appears that the regulatory gridlock in the United States is starting to ease. The House recently passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) last week, marking the furthest a cryptocurrency-specific bill has ever come legislatively. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has made a U-turn on Ether ETFs.
It would seem that the conditions for a breakout are in place, but so far it is unclear exactly what the future of cryptocurrencies will be.
“Call me cautiously optimistic,” Adam Roberts of institutional portfolio MPC told CoinDesk in a showroom interview. “The approval of the ETH ETF is a sign of change, but it is not enough to recatalyze things.”
“Ask me in two days and I’ll have a better answer,” Roberts added. “Based on how fast the coffee went, that’s a good indicator.”
It was a point echoed by Roberts’ colleague Steve Horvath, who joked about using Consensus 2024 as a barometer of market sentiment.
“Based on the crowd: no bear, no bull,” Horvath said.
Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Nodle, is a little more optimistic about recent regulatory changes, noting that the SEC’s heavy-handed approach to cryptocurrency oversight has driven many companies offshore and made it difficult to run a business at a national level.
If all goes well, “this alone should create a new bull market as the US remains the largest cryptocurrency market in the world,” Benoliel said.
Amanda Wick, founder and CEO of the Association for Women in Crypto and a former Justice Department prosecutor, is similarly optimistic this year, after looking around the conference room and seeing signs of a maturing industry.
“The consensus this year versus last year has seemed night and day,” Wick said. “The maturation has been evident in the conversations, speakers, sponsors, and intentional inclusion of groups that are working to make the industry more diverse,” he added, highlighting efforts made this year to include diversity groups such as LGBTQ+ community advocates at Web Q. “The industry’s best chance of sustaining a bull run comes through maturation and greater integrity, and Consensus this year clearly reflects positive movement in that direction.” she concluded.
Indeed, it may not be exactly clear whether cryptocurrencies are on the verge of another bull or bear market, but with any luck it has learned to avoid what brought it down last time.
News
Cryptocurrency Price August 1: Bitcoin Dips Below $65K; Solana, XRP Down Up To 8%
Major cryptocurrencies fell in Thursday trading following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged. Overnight, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive time, as expected, while also signaling the possibility of a rate cut at its next meeting in September. The unanimous decision by the Federal Open Market Committee reflects a continued wait-and-see approach as it monitors inflation trends.
CoinSwitch Markets Desk said: “Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000 after the US Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. However, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September, the outlook for a Bitcoin rally by the end of the year has strengthened.”
Meanwhile, CoinDCX research team said: “The crypto market has plunged after the Fed decision. Tomorrow’s US unemployment rate announcement is expected to induce more volatility, with the ‘actual’ figure coming in higher than the ‘expected’ one, which is positive for cryptocurrencies.”
At 12:21 pm IST, Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.2% at $64,285, while Ethereum was down nearly 4.5% at $3,313. Meanwhile, the global market cryptocurrency The market capitalization fell 3.6% to around $2.3 trillion in the last 24 hours.
“Bitcoin needs to clear its 200-day EMA at $64,510 to consolidate further. Otherwise, a retest of $62,000 could be in the cards,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.
Altcoins and meme coins, such as BNB (3%), Solana (8%), XRP (5.7%), Dogecoin (5%), Cardano (4.6%), Avalanche (4.3%), Shiba Inu (3.8%), Polkadot (3.4%), and Chainlink (4%) also saw declines.
The volume of all stablecoins is now $71.64 billion, which is 92.19% of the total cryptocurrency market volume in 24 hours, according to data available on CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 54.99%. BTC volume in the last 24 hours increased by 23.3% to $35.7 billion.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views provided by experts are personal. They do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Altcoins WIF, BONK, RUNE, JUP Down 10% While Bitcoin Drops 4%
Altcoins dogwifhat, Bonk, THORChain, and Jupiter have suffered losses of more than 10%, while Bitcoin is down 4% in the last 24 hours.
After a period of relative calm yesterday, July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) price action has seen a drastic change as the cryptocurrency dropped by more than $3,500, bringing its value to $63,300. At the same time, altcoins mirrored this trend, with the total value of liquidated positions rising to nearly $225 million over the course of the day.
Initially, the week started on a positive note for Bitcoin, which reached its highest point since early June, hitting $70,000. However, this peak was short-lived, as it was quickly rejected, leading to a substantial decline, with Bitcoin falling below $65,500.
The cryptocurrency managed to regain some stability, trading comfortably at around $66,800. However, following a Press conference According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the value of Bitcoin has fallen again to $64,300, down more than 3% in 24 hours.
BTC Price Chart 24 Hours | Source: crypto.news
The recession coincided with a relationship from the New York Times stating that Iran had called for retaliatory measures against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, increasing the risk of further conflict in the region.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rates in place, offering little information on a planned September rate cut. Powell also hinted that while no concrete decisions have been made on the September adjustment, there is growing consensus that a rate cut is likely.
Amid Bitcoin’s decline, altcoins have suffered even more significant losses. For example, dogwifhat (Wife) saw a 12.4% drop and (DISGUST) has suffered a 10% drop. Other altcoins such as THORChain (RUNE) also fell by 10%, while Jupiter (JUPITER) and the Ethereum naming service (ENS) decreased by 8% and 9% respectively.
Among the largest-cap cryptocurrencies, the biggest losers are Solana (SOL) with a decrease of 8%, (Exchange rate risk) down 6%, Cardano (ADA) down 4%, and both Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recording a decrease of 4.4%.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that approximately 67,000 traders have been negatively impacted by this increased volatility. BTC positions have seen $61.85 million in liquidations, while ETH positions have faced $61 million. In total, the value of liquidated positions stands at $225.4 million at the time of writing.
News
Riot Platforms Sees 52% Drop in Bitcoin Production in Q2
Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms has released its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a decline in cryptocurrency mined due to the recent halving.
Colorado-based Bitcoin (BTC) mining company Riot platforms revealed its second quarter financial results, highlighting a significant reduction in mined cryptocurrencies attributed to the recent halving event that took place in early April.
The company reported total revenue of $70 million for the quarter ended July 31, a decline of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Riot Platforms attributed the revenue decline primarily to a $9.7 million decrease in engineering revenue, which was partially mitigated by a $6 million increase in Bitcoin extraction income.
During the quarter, the company mined 844 BTC, representing a decline of over 50% from Q2 2023, citing the halving event and increasing network difficulty as major factors behind the decline. Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million, or $0.32 per share, missing Zacks Research forecast a loss of $0.16 per share.
Halving increases competitive pressure
The Colorado-based firm said the average cost of mining one BTC in the second quarter, including energy credits, rose to $25,327, a remarkable 341% increase from $5,734 per BTC in the same quarter of 2023. Despite this significant increase in production costs, the firm remains optimistic about maintaining competitiveness through recent deals.
For example, following the Recent acquisition Cryptocurrency firm Block Mining, Riot has increased its distributed hash rate forecast from 31 EH/s to 36 EH/s by the end of 2024, while also increasing its 2025 forecast from 40 EH/s to 56 EH/s.
Riot Platforms Hashrate Growth Projections by 2027 | Source: Riot Platforms
Commenting on the company’s financials, Riot CEO Jason Les said that despite the halving, the mining company still managed to achieve “significant operational growth and execution of our long-term strategy.”
“Despite this reduction in production available to all Bitcoin miners, Riot reported $70 million in revenue for the quarter and maintained strong gross margins in our core Bitcoin mining business.”
Jason Les
Following its Q2 financial report, Riot Platforms shares fell 1.74% to $10.19, according to Google Finance data. Meanwhile, the American miner continues to chase Canadian rival Bitfarms, recently acquiring an additional 10.2 million BITF shares, increasing its stake in Bitfarms to 15.9%.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Riot was the first announced a $950 million takeover bid for Bitfarms in late May, arguing that Bitfarms’ founders were not acting in the best interests of all shareholders. They said their proposal was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive engagement.
In response, Bitfarms She said that Riot’s offer “significantly understates” its growth prospects. Bitfarms subsequently implemented a shareholder rights plan, also known as a “poison pill,” to protect its strategic review process from hostile takeover attempts.
News
Aave Price Increases Following Whales Accumulation and V3.1 Launch
Decentralized finance protocol Aave is seeing a significant spike in whale activity as the market looks to recover from the recent crash that pushed most altcoins into key support areas earlier this week.
July 31, Lookonchain shared details indicating that the whales had aggressively accumulated Aave (AAVE) over the past two days. According to the data, whales have withdrawn over 58,848 AAVE worth $6.47 million from exchanges during this period.
In one instance, whale address 0x9af4 withdrew 11,185 AAVE worth $1.23 million from Binance. Meanwhile, another address moved 21,619 AAVE worth over $2.38 million from the exchange and deposited the tokens into Aave.
These withdrawals follow a previous transfer of 26,044 AAVE from whale address 0xd7c5, amounting to over $2.83 million withdrawn from Binance.
AAVE price has surged over 7% in the past 24 hours amid buy-side pressure from these whales. The DeFi token is currently trading around $111 after jumping over 18% in the past week.
Recently, the price of AAVE increased by over 8% after Aave founder Marc Zeller announced a proposed fee change aimed at adopting a buyback program for AAVE tokens.
Aave v3.1 is available
The total value locked in the Aave protocol currently stands at around $22 billion. According to DeFiLlamaApproximately $19.9 billion is on Aave V3, while the V2 chain still holds approximately $1.9 billion in TVL and V1 approximately $14.6 million.
Aave Labs announced Previously, Aave V3.1 was made available on all networks with active Aave V3 instances.
V3.1 features improvements that are intended to improve the overall security of the DeFi protocol. The Aave DAO governance has approved the v3.1 improvements, which also include operational efficiency and usability for the network.
Meanwhile, Aave Labs recently outlined a ambitious roadmap for the projectwith a 2030 vision for Aave V4, among other developments.
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