Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in 2024

Curious about Bitcoin’s next move? Here’s why $80,000 is a realistic goal for 2024 and where it should go after that.

I know I know. You probably expected me to set a higher target price for Bitcoin (Bitcoin 0.75%). After all, everyone else is doing it.

• Tom Lee, partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sees $150,000 per coin as the “base case” in 2024.
• British analysts money center bank Standard charter recently agreed with Fundstrat’s $150,000 predictionand said they expect another step up to $250,000 next year.
• Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood thought Bitcoin would reach $600,000 in 2024, on its way to a goal of $1.5 million by 2030. She hasn’t updated her short-term goal lately, but her 2030 goal it is now equal to $3.8 million per Bitcoin.

And to be honest, I myself have set a price target of $150,000 on Bitcoin – but not for this year. I expect this milestone to be reached in 2025 or 2026. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle of price surges suggests another dramatic price surge after the one in April. halving of mining rewards – but don’t expect this surge to materialize right away.

Bitcoin price movements after halvings 1, 2 and 3

First, there is a clear pattern found in Bitcoin price charts after each halving.

1. From the summer of 2012 to the fall of 2013, the price of Bitcoin experienced significant growth. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin experienced its first halving, at a price of approximately $12 per digital currency. In late November 2013, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $1,100 in the first halving cycle.
2. On July 9, 2016, with a price of around $650, Bitcoin experienced its second halving. In December 2017, its price peaked at nearly $20,000, before falling to around $6,500 in April 2018. That was the peak period of Bitcoin’s second halving cycle.
3. On May 11, 2020, it was the time of Bitcoin’s third halving, with a price of around $9,000, as the world grappled with the impact of COVID-19 for the first time. By November 2021, Bitcoin’s price had reached a new all-time high of nearly $69,000, reflecting growing institutional interest and widespread adoption.

You see the pattern, right? So far each halving has been followed by an impressive price increase, but always with a significant delay. Here’s how long it took Bitcoin to reach the peak of each halving cycle, starting from the date of each mining reward reduction:

1. 1 year, 1 day
2. 1 year, 5 months, 8 days
3. 1 year, 5 months, 30 days

From this perspective, it is logical that the fourth halving should result in another price peak, but not before the spring of 2025. Any faster event would mean a significant acceleration of the post-halving market reaction.

Because every Bitcoin halving is different

Of course, each halving event is unique. In 2012, the former was charting completely uncharted waters. Four years later, Bitcoin investors and miners didn’t know whether the halving cycle would inspire similar market reactions twice. In 2020, COVID-19 threw a spanner in the works, but in many ways the same old pattern repeated itself.

So here we are in 2024, waiting to see exactly how the next cycle will work. All sorts of theories have been proposed and explored, but only time will tell.

The introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETF began an increase in the price of Bitcoin a few months before this halving. Will the major cryptocurrency simply follow its previous pattern from a higher starting point, or will the expected post-halving surge be undermined by a higher starting price?

When it comes to the exact shape of Bitcoin’s future price chart, your guess is as good as mine. Historical patterns suggest a slow burn in 2024, followed by a sharp spike in early 2025. The real world doesn’t always conform to previous patterns, but the market has built a fairly consistent collection of reactions to Bitcoin’s halving cycles.

Image source: Getty Images.

What to expect from Bitcoin in the coming years

I’m not a fan of technical analysis. Unforeseen events can take the wind out of the fullest sailsOR take a select handful of stocks to new heights without warning. So I hesitate to provide a specific target price for Bitcoin at the end of 2024. The scribbles on the charts above quickly lose all meaning in the face of real-world surprises.

However, the long-term bullish trend is undeniable and is supported by pure mathematics The inner workings of Bitcoin. So the cryptocurrency looks poised for some modest gains as the post-halving economy evolves before our eyes, whether regulators are helping or hindering them. A 15% gain to $80,000 seems quite reasonable, followed by the usual post-halving rise next year.

Don’t expect the coin to do this go to the moon in 2024, but feel free to build a long-term Bitcoin position to take advantage of the fourth halving surge, followed by the fifth in 2028, the sixth in 2032, and so on.

True Bitcoin wealth will belong to long-term investors with strong patience and willingness to do so buy more Bitcoin in the inevitable dips along the way.

Anders Bylund has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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